South Africa: will President Zuma's latest scandals affect the outcome of Mangaung?

President Jacob Zuma has once again been implicated in a number of scandals that bring his suitability for re-election as ANC president and therefore that of the country into question. The most recent blow came from the Constitutional Court when it ruled that the appointment of Menzi Simelane as the National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) was ‘irrational’ and therefore constitutionally invalid. It found that President Zuma had appointed Simelane despite being aware that questions about his integrity and competency were raised during a parliamentary inquiry into the former NDPP, Vusi Pikoli. This resulted in the Public Service Commission undertaking an investigation into Simelane which found that there were grounds to start disciplinary proceedings against him. At the time he was the Director-General of the Department of Justice and had played a key role in undermining and closing down the elite anti-corruption agency known as the Scorpions.

The fact that the Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development, Jeff Radebe, had ignored these findings and gone ahead to recommend that President Zuma appoint Simelane as NDPP was irrational as it was in conflict with his oath as a minister to uphold the Constitution and the law. This has very publicly raised questions about Radebe’s integrity and, according to constitutional analyst Pierre de Vos, is sufficient reason for President Zuma to ask the minister to resign. This is unlikely to happen given that there is a ‘rational’ reason for Zuma to appoint a malleable NDPP of questionable integrity: a truly honest and independent NDPP may re-instate the 783 criminal charges on corruption, fraud, racketeering and money laundering that Zuma faced shortly after he was elected as ANC president in 2007. These charges were controversially withdrawn for reasons that had nothing to do with the merits of the case, but rather because of illegally obtained and therefore questionable evidence suggesting that there may have been political interference; an allegation that has not been tested in a court of law. 

On the positive side, the Constitutional Court ruling clarified two important issues. Firstly, President Zuma cannot appoint the NDPP without relying on objective criteria of what it means to be a ‘fit and proper person’ and, secondly, this appointment must be apolitical as the NDPP is tasked with upholding the independence of the NPA. Given the litany of poor appointments in the criminal justice sector under President Zuma’s administration, the country will be watching carefully to see who is appointed next. The acting NDPP, Advocate Nomgcobo Jiba, also appointed by President Zuma, has little credibility given that she was suspended from the NPA for abusing her power to undermine the prosecution of former SAPS National Commissioner Jackie Selebi. Eyebrows were also raised when President Zuma pardoned her husband for his criminal conviction for theft, lending weight to allegations that this was meant to influence her to look favourably on those that he wished to protect. Since then, a number of politicians and officials who demonstrated their public support for President Zuma’s re-election as ANC president at the end of the year, have had corruption charges against them withdrawn in controversial circumstances.

The second contentious issue concerns the upgrade of President Zuma’s private homestead in Nkandla. Two years ago, it was estimated that the homestead would cost R6.4 million, but documents leaked from the Department of Public Works reveal that the cost to taxpayers is closer to R238 million. The Ministerial Handbook states that private residences of senior politicians can be upgraded to the amount of R100 000, which raises questions about who has authorised this extravagant spree. The Public Protector has stated that she will be investigating the complaint, although the outcome is unlikely to be finalised before the ANC elective conference in December. 

Considering how many South Africans are living in appalling conditions, President Zuma’s lavish lifestyle is becoming unpalatable to many. The amount apparently spent on Zuma’s private home could provide state-subsidised houses for 3 500 families. Normally, scandals that demonstrate scant regard for the public interest should worry a president who is hoping to be re-elected. However, at this point it is unlikely that scandals relating to President Zuma will have much of an effect on the outcome of the ANC’s national conference at Mangaung. This is because most of the 4 500 ANC branch members voting at Mangaung have most likely already made up their minds. Pro-Zuma campaigners have been making much of the need for unity in the ANC and denigrating those who might want to contest the leadership. As a result Kgalema Motlanthe will have difficulty competing with President Zuma at Mangaung, as he and his supporters risk appearing to be careerists who do not have the unity of the ANC at heart. President Zuma’s lobbyists have reportedly already offered Motlanthe a deal whereby if he does not run against Zuma, he can retain the position of deputy president and then be supported as party president in 2014. Although Motlanthe has been nominated for ANC president by various structures in the ANC, including the ANC Youth League and the Limpopo and Gauteng provincial executive committees (PECs), he has not yet indicated whether he will accept the nomination and stand against President Zuma. His decision will have substantial ramifications for both the ANC and the country. 

Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division