South Africa: Weak internal processes for choosing leadership threaten the ANC in the long-term
As Mangaung steadily approaches,
the weaknesses of the internal electoral processes of the African National
Congress (ANC) become more evident. The first problem is that there is no
acceptance of and therefore rules guiding open campaigning by those wishing to
stand for leadership positions. In the run-up to the ANC’s National Conference
in Mangaung, two clear camps emerged early on. These consisted of those who
wanted the incumbent President Jacob Zuma to serve a second term as ANC
president and those who wanted Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe as the new
ANC president. However, as the National Executive Committee of the ANC allowed
no one to discuss or openly talk about leadership until the beginning of
September, campaigning ended up taking place ‘underground’. This situation
would obviously favour the incumbent and work against Motlanthe, who could not
remain a disciplined member of the ANC and campaign for a leadership position
at the same time. Consequently, President Zuma secured 2 421 nominations for
the position of president while Motlanthe only secured 496 nominations as of
Monday, 3 December 2012.
Ironically, because Motlanthe played
by the rules he may find himself out in the cold. Those supporting President Zuma were accused
of breaking all the rules by openly campaigning for his retention of the
presidency, rigging branch audit processes and, in some cases, using violence
and intimidation. Because Motlanthe did not allow himself to be associated with
any ‘slate’ (a list of nominations supported by a particular faction), he is
likely to lose his position of ANC deputy president at Mangaung. Those
supporting President Zuma nominated Cyril Ramaphosa as their preferred
candidate for ANC deputy president. The fact that this voting pattern appeared
in most Zuma-supporting structures reveals the use of a slate as a weapon in
the run-up to the National Conference. In the provincial nomination results,
Ramaphosa garnered 1941 nominations, with Motlanthe in fourth place with 194
nominations (trailing Tokyo Sexwale with 411 nominations and Baleka Mbete with
235 nominations).
Although the pro-Zuma faction may
have secured a victory in Mangaung, their work is far from over. They have a
number of issues to consider, including Ramaphosa’s acceptability as a
candidate among leftist alliance partners and members, the reaction of the
anti-Zuma faction in the ANC if Motlanthe is removed from the leadership, and
the continued deterioration of the national perception of the ANC under the
leadership of President Zuma. The selection of Ramaphosa as a candidate for
Deputy President was widely viewed as a ploy to force Motlanthe’s hand to
announce that he would not run against President Zuma. This did not happen as
Motlanthe remained a disciplined cadre and correctly argued that it would deny
branch members the right to choose their leaders. Given that President Zuma’s
supporters used the slate system, it is not clear to what extent those
nominated with him enjoy widespread support in the party.
The process for choosing the ANC
leadership has resulted in a range of problems for the party. Three provinces
were unable to conclude their conferences due to problems with the verification
of branches and intimidation from President Zuma’s supporters. Therefore, the
Western Cape, Limpopo and North West concluded with no endorsements. Parallel
meetings were held where one came out in support of Motlanthe and the other in
support of President Zuma. Motlanthe supporters are currently contesting the
results of the Eastern Cape conference, as there have been allegations of ghost
voting. The divisions witnessed at the provincial conferences raise the
question of what will happen to those who lose at Mangaung. President Zuma will
have to contend with a divided organisation where large numbers of disgruntled
members may undermine his leadership. In an effort to reduce this possibility,
backroom deals are currently in play. However, Motlanthe has stated in an
interview with Business Day that he
will not partake in any deal as this undermines the will of the branches.
Therefore, a more divided ANC post-Mangaung is possible.
The biggest obstacle post-Mangaung
would be the continued deterioration of the perception of the country under the
leadership of President Zuma. It is expected that President Zuma’s ‘blunders’
will continue, which will increasingly undermine the party’s image and
discourage voters from supporting it in 2014. While many disgruntled ANC voters
will not vote for the opposition, their absence at the polls may reduce the
ANC’s majority in parliament to less than 60%. Indeed, the ANC only polled 62%
of the national vote in the 2011 local government elections. This reduction in
support will be blamed on President Zuma and it could increase the anti-Zuma
sentiment in the party. It could also prompt a breakaway left-wing
labour-orientated political party from among those in the alliance, as this is
where a clear gap exists in the political landscape.
There has been speculation that
President Zuma may be asked to step down as presidential candidate in the
run-up to the 2014 national election, to allow Ramaphosa to step forward as the
ANC’s presidential candidate. However, there are many factors contributing to
President Zuma’s unwillingness to give up power voluntarily. The numerous
criminal charges against him may be reinstated, and he also wishes to avoid
investigations of decisions that he took while in office (for example the waste
of state resources at his personal homestead in Nkandla). He has also based his
path to the presidency on patronage networks and therefore there is
considerable interest in his continuance.
The infighting that the ANC has
experienced over the past five years since Polokwane is seen as symptomatic of
the slow demise of the once proud party. It will be important to see how the
pro-Zuma camp steers the ANC as times become even more turbulent in the future.
The decisions made in the next month will undeniably affect the lifespan of the
party.
Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division