Somalia: surprising win for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
On Monday 10 September, Hassan
Sheikh Mohamud was elected as the president of Somalia. President Mohamud’s
election came as a surprise to many, as he is not well known internationally
and is relatively new to politics. In fact, his background is in education and
civil society. He helped to start the Somali Institute of Management and
Administration Development (SIMAD) and founded the Peace and Development Party
in 2011. By virtue of his work and having lived in Somalia throughout the
struggle, he is well connected and has extensive insight as to what people
need.
Leading Somalia would be a
daunting task for anyone. However, the task is monumental for a political
novice. President Mohamud is faced with reconstructing the state, building
sustainable state institutions, effecting reconciliation and dealing with the
threat still posed by Al-Shabaab. Many Somalis in the diaspora are willing to
come home to help rebuild their country, but they will only do so if they are
assured of peace and security and a favourable environment within which to
operate. Since President Mohamud will need the commitment of the diaspora, the
post-transition period is a critical window of opportunity for him to
demonstrate what he can do to ensure their safety in the country.
President Mohamud will also have
to play the vital role of reconciling the Somali state and Somali society.
There are still numerous power bases that can be manipulated into violence,
something which he will have to avoid at all costs. The corrupt nature of the
Somali state will also have to be addressed.
As for the threat of Al-Shabaab,
it is probable that Kismayo, one of its last major strongholds, will fall in
the near future. If this happens, the group is likely to miniaturise and
operate from a variety of locations in the country. The area in Somalia that is
ungoverned is still bigger than the area that is governed, leaving a lot of
room for Al-Shabaab to manoeuvre. Important developments on the horizon include
if and how President Mohamud engages with Al-Shabaab.
Another issue that must be
addressed is the timing of Somalia’s transitional justice processes. And all of
this will have to take place within the context of the new president balancing
the push of the West with the pull from Somalis.
Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division
