Rwanda: Is President Paul Kagame's regime sustainable?
In 2012, the United Nations Group
of Experts (GoE) reports on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) cast the
spotlight on neighbouring Rwanda, alleging that it has been supporting the M23
rebellion and its conquest of Goma. While Rwanda’s activities in the DRC have
been discussed extensively at local, regional and international level, the
question of what is next for Rwanda itself has largely been neglected.
Rwanda has lost vast amounts of
donor assistance since the interim GoE report was released. The latest blow
came with the UK withholding £21 million of aid to Rwanda. This was followed by
reports claiming that when Rwanda started losing aid, it was up to ordinary
Rwandans to start donating money to the government. President Paul Kagame of
Rwanda seemed unperturbed by the loss of foreign aid, saying that Rwanda had
already seen the worst.
However, given the current
political situation in Rwanda, serious questions must be raised about the
sustainability of the current regime’s actions.
There seems to be no viable opposition at the moment, leaving the 2017
elections an easy win for the current ruling party, the Rwandan Patriotic Front
(Front patroitique rwandais, or FPR).
In fact, President Kagame’s most vocal opponent, Victoire Ingabire of the
United Democratic Forces, has recently received a prison sentence of eight
years after being convicted of treason and threatening state security.
Ingabire’s two-year trial, which she largely boycotted, citing a lack of trust
in the independence of the court, was surrounded by controversy. Recently, 14
members of the Rwandan National Congress in exile in South Africa had their
passports cancelled by the Rwandan government. Members of this party claim that
they fear for their lives, even in exile.
The political space in Rwanda
remains tightly controlled, which raises the question of the FPR’s continued
existence after President Kagame, who has said that he will not stay in office
for another term come 2017. The continued cohesion of the FPR should not be
taken for granted. According to some reports, fractures are already starting to
show within the party. Another factor that has to be considered is the ethnic
division that has so long characterised many of the conflicts in the Great
Lakes Region. The FPR is still viewed by many as a Tutsi-dominated party,
perpetuating the prominence of the Tutsi in Rwanda. It is vital that the rift
between the Hutu and Tutsi be addressed, and that future political parties are
not rallied along ethnic lines.
For now, Rwanda remains stable,
but the lack of opposition and the inability of civil society to criticise the
government is not a situation that can be contained indefinitely.
Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division
