Africa's current and future stability

This paper discusses recent conflict trends in Africa, then considers the potential impact of changes in development and security prospects to model three future scenarios.

This paper first presents a summary of recent conflict trends in Africa, largely drawing on data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Then, to provide a picture of the potential future impact of changes in Africa’s development and security prospects up to 2063 (a timeline that ties in with the African Union’s Agenda 2063 initiative), the paper models the implications of three alternative futures for Africa. These are a 'Base Case’ scenario (the current trajectory), an ‘African Renaissance’ scenario (a best-case scenario) and a ‘Politics of the Belly’ scenario (in which the trends analysed take a negative course).

About the authors

Jakkie Cilliers is executive director at the Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria office. He is an extraordinary professor in the Centre of Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Humanities at the University of Pretoria. He also serves on the International Advisory Board of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy in Switzerland and as a member of the board of advisers of the Center on International Conflict Resolution, Columbia University, New York.

Steve Hedden is a research assistant at the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures, Denver, Colorado. He has been a consultant for the Institute for Security Studies since March 2014 and a research assistant at the Pardee Center for International Futures since December 2012. He is currently finishing his master’s degree in international development at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies in Denver, Colorado.

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