Africa in the New World: how Global and Domestic Developments will Impact by 2025

This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world

The world is currently experiencing a massive change in the balance of power as influence and industry shift from the West to the East. Whilst African developments will not become a substantive driver and factor in global scenarios in the next two or three decades, the importance of the region will steadily increase.

This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four ‘megatrends’ constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation, and state power and interdependence and complexity. The second set of ‘African variables’ reflects domestic developments: Africa’s population dynamics, trade, democratisation/ governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent.

Africa’s future will be determined by its leadership and the choices that are made by Africa’s elected and unelected Big Men – not by the size of their ideas, but in the example they set in the daily decisions about contacts, conflict of interest and democratic accountability.

About the author

Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies. He holds a DLitt et Phil degree from the University of South Africa (Unisa) and co-founded the ISS in 1990. At present most of Dr Cilliers’ interests relate to the emerging security architecture in Africa as reflected in the developments under the banner of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union. Awards and decorations include the Bronze Medal from the South African Society for the Advancement of Science and the H Bradlow Research Bursary. Dr Cilliers has presented numerous papers at conferences and seminars and published a number of books on various matters relating to peace and security in Africa. He is a regular commentator on local and international radio and television and has published widely. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities, at the University of Pretoria and serves on the International Advisory Board of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and as independent non-executive director of the South African Banking Risk Information Centre (SABRIC).