Educating Cape 2040: building blocks of future prosperity

In this brief we explore potential development paths for Western Cape education to 2040.

The Western Cape’s long-term vision, OneCape 2040, identifies ‘getting the basics right’ within the education system as the first priority for achieving a more inclusive and resilient future for the province. But the challenges ahead are substantial. Every year, tens of thousands of Western Cape learners repeat grades, increasing their chances of further repetition and dropout prior to matric. The high repetition and dropout rates are a significant strain on the Western Cape Education Department’s capacity.

In this brief we explore potential development paths for Western Cape education to 2040. Our Base Case forecast envisions steady improvements in the retention of learners across all grades and levels of education, but the relatively slow pace of improvement threatens to leave yet another generation of learners without a complete, high-quality education. To address this, we identify two policy options, namely an expansion of the Early Childhood Development initiative and the introduction of specialised supplementary teacher training courses. Both of these have been shown by development research to contribute to a lowering of grade repetition and to boosting learner scores. We then model the potential effects of these policies through the creation of an Educating Cape scenario.

In Educating Cape, the burden of schoolchildren who have to repeat is largely absent from primary schools by 2040, and is a rapidly declining problem in secondary schooling. Higher numbers of learners are progressing steadily into secondary and higher education.

Comparing a scenario where these education policies are pursued aggressively with one where they are not (the Base Case), the Western Cape stands to see the following results:

• Near universal net intake primary rates would be achieved six years earlier under the Educating Cape scenario.
• The primary survival rate would reach 100 per cent by 2030 – seven years earlier under the Educating Cape scenario.
• By 2040 upper secondary survival rates in the Western Cape would rise from a forecasted 89 percent in the Base Case to 93 per cent.
• 10 000 fewer Western Cape residents would be living in extreme poverty by 2040.
• Annual gains to Base Case Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a result of Educating Cape interventions would climb from nearly R30 million in 2020 to over R6,5 billion in 2040 (2013 rand).
• 2040 GDP per capita at purchasing power parity would be R1 400 (2013 rand) higher under the Educating Cape scenario.

With higher levels of education will come a reduced burden of communicable disease and poverty in many Western Cape communities, as well as associated gains in GDP and per capita income. The Educating Cape outcomes will help to frame the impact the Western Cape government can have on the future of the province’s children. It should also emphasise the positive results that can be realised from long-term investment and action.

Authors: Dale van der Lingen, Sibusiso Nonyati, Mickey Rafa and Hanna Camp