Violence in Africa: trends, drivers and prospects to 2023

Violence forecasts in Africa are analysed, including the seven deep drivers of violence and their likely impact.

This report analyses prospects for violence in Africa to 2023. It first presents recent conflict trends including slowly declining fatality rates in several countries, noting Africa’s large burden of non-state conflict and the increase in riots and protests. The report then turns to seven structural (or deep) drivers of violence, and how they are likely to impact Africa in future. In conclusion, the structural transitions that will push Africa towards a more stable and peaceful future are discussed.

About the author

Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the founder of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), chairman of the ISS Board of Trustees and head of African Futures and Innovation at ISS Pretoria. He is an Extraordinary Professor at the Centre for Human Rights and the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty of Humanities at the University of Pretoria, and a well-known author and analyst.

Picture: UN Photo/Albert Gonzalez Farran

Development partners
This report is funded by the Hanns Seidel Foundation and SIDA. The ISS is also grateful for support from the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: the Hanns Seidel Foundation, the European Union and the governments of Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the USA.
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