Zambia: Sata Fourth Time Lucky
Michael Sata`s victory in presidential elections in Zambia signals an important step towards democratic consolidation in this country. It should also serve as a lesson to other opposition parties in Southern Africa to up their game. Still, Sata will have to deliver on his promised, especially to the young, unemployed youth in urban areas.
Arthur Chatora, Intern, Emmanuel Kisiangani Senior Researcher, and Lisa Otto, Intern, African Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Pretoria Office
Zambia’s Michael Sata, leader of the opposition Patriotic Front (PF) has won Zambia`s presidential elections with 43% of the vote against incumbent Rupiah Banda of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD). Sata, popularly known as "King Cobra" for his venomous tongue against poor labour conditions in foreign-owned mining firms, was declared winner by Chief Justice Ernest Sakala in another tightly contested election and he was sworn in on Friday as Zambia`s fifth post independence president.
Interestingly, the latest transition of power from one political party to another will be Zambia`s second, thus signaling an encouraging growth in the country`s path toward democratic consolidation.
The opposition leader`s win signals the end of a long road for him: it was the fourth time that the PF leader had run for the presidency, having previously contested in 2001, 2006 and in 2008 when he narrowly lost to Banda. Hopefully Sata`s win in a region that has witnessed few electoral victories by opposition parties, could spur other opposition groups in Southern Africa to rethink their strategies and consolidate themselves in their respective countries. The smooth transition of power has been welcomed and seen by many as an encouraging sign of democracy, especially against a backdrop of recent bitterly contested presidential elections including Cote d`Ivoire in 2010, Zimbabwe in 2008 and Kenya in 2007/8. In Zambia, the outgoing president Banda, in a rare move in African politics, has accepted the results and conceded defeat.
While the vote went on largely smoothly, it was marred by small pockets of riots and intermittent protests, particularly in the capital Lusaka and the northern mining regions. Moreover, a delay in announcing some of the results raised suspicion of a `Kenyan style` tempering of the vote in favour of the MMD. Tensions were further heightened by a ban on the media announcing results that were not verified by the electoral commission. This was apparently in response to the posting of record landslide victories for Sata by some people, who in a move to pre-empt any attempts at rigging, had hacked into the Electoral Commission`s website. Despite the challenges, the elections were relatively free and fair and the process seems to have been well managed.
Following Sata`s win, there have been various opinions on whether there will be any change in Zambia`s economic, domestic and foreign policy positions. Although Sata has previously used what bordered on xenophobic rhetoric to garner support, some think his ideological stance has largely been motivated by mere politicking and as a campaign strategy. Sata`s recent departure from his populist policy stance, calling for an increase in taxes on mining companies, to a new position that favours low taxes for foreign mining investors, indicates that he realises the risks of tinkering with the economy. It is possible that not much will change in terms of economic policy.
In a perceived departure from anti-Chinese sentiment, Sata has been speaking about "smart partnership" with China. Considering this new approach, it has been noted that it is unlikely that the PF will depart from the MMD`s pragmatic policy agenda that involves adherence to market-oriented agenda and macroeconomic stability. Others, however, are of the opinion that Sata faces immense expectations around foreign investments and alleged violation of industrial and labour laws and that his government will have to take drastic policy changes if it has to assuage, rather than alienate those who voted for him.
Indeed, Sata`s victory may just be the beginning of the difficult challenge of dealing with expectations and the party will be under great pressure to prove itself. In its manifesto the party promises the electorate more jobs, better education and social development within their communities. The real test will be how to deliver on these promises. There are high expectations from the youth and urban-based population who form a greater part of the PF`s support base and these people have been affected by poverty and unemployment. Banda`s economic achievements demonstrated by unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment (FDI), with a growth rate estimated at 7% and FDI pledges amounting to more than $4bn in 2010, did not trickle down to the people. Whether Sata and the PF will be able to give Zambians more meaning to economic growth only time will tell.
