Turning Africa’s legal advantages into benefits for climate refugees
On paper, Africa is ahead of the world on climate-linked migration, but needs support to implement its progressive frameworks.
Published on 24 February 2025 in
ISS Today
By
Tamara Wood
Senior Research Fellow, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, University of New South Wales
The number of people displaced by extreme weather events in Africa rose 600% between 2009 and 2023, when 6.3 million were affected. Most of these disasters were floods and storms, followed by droughts and wildfires, landslides, erosion and extreme temperatures.
In every African region, changing weather patterns, severe droughts, storms and rising sea levels force people from their homes in search of safety and more sustainable livelihoods.
Africa has some of the most progressive legal frameworks worldwide for protecting people displaced by climate change. But countries have not yet applied these frameworks in a meaningful way.
Implementation is compromised by various factors, including rising nationalism and waning political will to support refugees. Limited resources, inadequate asylum systems and a dearth of legal precedents also play a role. Poor technical knowledge about how climate change intersects with more recognised drivers of displacement such as conflict and poverty, and how to apply laws accordingly, also constrains implementation.
Between 2009 and 2023, the number of people displaced by extreme weather events in Africa rose 600%
Climate change was not a factor when international and African refugee and internal displacement conventions were created in 1951, 1969 and 1991 respectively. Yet these are important sources of protection for people forced to leave their homes by extreme weather events.
This week, leading refugee and human rights law experts launch a global Practical Toolkit to guide African and other governments in addressing the problem. The toolkit encompasses international and regional legal instruments in Africa, Latin America and Europe, with a particularly close analysis of Africa’s refugee criteria. It draws on existing legal principles to explain how climate change and disasters can help substantiate protection claims under these instruments.
By 2050, up to 5% (113 million) of Africa’s population of two billion could be on the move due to climate change, up from 1.5% today. Most will move within their countries, but cross-border mobility will also increase. Other migrants will lack the resources needed to move and be ‘trapped’ into forced immobility.
The links between climate change, insecurity and displacement are becoming increasingly clear. While climate change doesn’t directly cause conflict, it amplifies risks and fragilities. In parts of Africa with pre-existing tensions, weak governance and socio-economic problems, climate impacts can trigger violence, public unrest and displacement.
The five largest United Nations (UN)-led peace operations in Africa are deployed in countries rated as most vulnerable to climate change – Central African Republic, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali and Sudan. Administrators, judges and refugee determination officers must understand these links to appropriately assess cases and determine how refugee laws should address climate-linked displacement.
On paper, Africa is ahead of the world in dealing with climate-linked mobility. The continent’s 1969 Organisation of African Unity Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa (OAU Convention) is widely celebrated for its expansive approach to refugee protection. The convention moves beyond the Eurocentricity of the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, to protect people fleeing more generalised conditions of unrest or upheaval in Africa.
There is limited evidence of African countries applying regional instruments in situations involving climate change
The OAU Convention extends refugee protection to people compelled to leave their homes due to ‘events seriously disturbing public order.’ However, uncertainty remains within legal circles about exactly what qualifies. Historically, debates have focused on whether ‘natural’ events, such as disasters are included, or only ‘man-made’ disturbances, like conflict.
Over time, these debates have given way to a more nuanced recognition that disturbances to public order typically arise from myriad causes, including climate change or disaster impacts. When climate change and disasters generate or exacerbate risks of serious harm, those affected may have a valid refugee claim.
The 2009 African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) (Kampala Convention) was the world’s first (and is still the only) binding regional agreement protecting IDPs. It explicitly extends protection to people forced to flee ‘as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of … natural or human-made disasters.’
Africa has been similarly forward-thinking in developing free movement protocols that include climate-linked mobility considerations. Even though they are non-binding, these protocols can enable cross-border movement for people who could be denied other migration pathways or refugee protection.
The Economic Community of West African States and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) have free movement agreements for West and the Horn of Africa respectively. The IGAD 2020 Protocol on Free Movement of Persons is the only agreement globally that explicitly addresses climate change.
The Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment and Climate Change was signed by 11 East African countries in 2022. It is the first regional framework on mobility in the context of climate change.
The toolkit explains how climate disasters can help substantiate protection claims under existing refugee conventions
Despite this progressive foundation, there is limited evidence of African countries applying these instruments in climate change situations. In 2011, drought led to widespread famine in Somalia, compounded by decades of violence, while neighbouring Kenya and Uganda suffered less. Although Kenya and Uganda recognised Somalians fleeing drought and famine as prima facie refugees, Kenya temporarily closed its border with Somalia, citing national security concerns.
Whereas countries have struggled to implement free movement and refugee frameworks in the context of climate change, the frameworks have significant potential. The AU, UN, academics and African states have called for these frameworks to be used, suggesting that political will does exist. The question is how to move from policy to practice.
Building on research and guidance from the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, the Practical Toolkit being launched this week explains how climate change impacts may generate ‘events seriously disturbing public order’ – for example, in situations involving severe and/or sudden-onset disasters. Or this could occur in combination with other factors, including conflict and violence.
The toolkit also explains how slow-onset impacts, such as drought, can contribute to a disturbance to public order over time. It guides governments and decision makers on the kinds of evidence, or indicators, that can be used and how the principle of non-refoulement could further enhance protection.
Refugee protection and free movement protocols are not panaceas for people displaced by climate change. However, their role can and should increase. Governments should apply the toolkit, and civil society and lawmakers should improve their understanding of how climate change drives displacement.
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