Nigeria Elections: High Hopes Dissolve After a Messy Start
This article discusses the troubled start of Nigeria’s April polls, highlighting anxieties that after so much preparation – and hundreds of millions of dollars spent – Nigerians may, once again, face disappointment and frustration in the conduct of National Legislative, presidential, and gubernatorial elections this April
Lansana Gberie, Senior Researcher, African Conflict Prevention Programme, Addis Ababa Office
Stepping outside Abuja’s Nnamdi Azikwe Airport in early March, I was suddenly aware of a convoy of SUV’s and other sleek vehicles leaving the parking lot. It looked presidential, but the small crowd of people around the parking lot was waving reverentially at the convoy, and the security wasn’t particularly tight. On inquiry, my taxi driver, beaming, told me: “That is our savior, Commissioner Jega. He is the only one that can fix things here, and he is conducting our elections.” He was referring to Attahiru Jega, formerly Vice Chancellor of Bayero University, and appointed in August 2010 as head of the country’s wobbly Independent National Electoral commission, INEC.
I muttered something about the danger of putting so much hope in one man in such a large and complex country. The driver’s friendly smile vanished; and he looked at me scornfully, as at a cynical foreigner and a fool, and never regained his good humour throughout our long trip to my hotel. It was a good introduction to the country as it prepared for what is billed as ‘make or break’ elections this April.
The elections are certainly the most open since Nigeria gained independence in 1960, and the fourth nation-wide polls since. Breaking a cycle of coups and praetorian dictatorships, it returned to civil rule in 1999. Of the 17 or more elections being held in Africa this year, the elections in Nigeria are certainly one of the most important, and their successful conduct will have ramifications all over the continent.
Nigeria’s last nation-wide polls, in 2007, were so contested that they generated an astonishing 1,250 petitions, and 6,180 electoral litigations at the courts. Incredibly, some of these litigations are still pending. While the resort to the courts by aggrieved parties is a welcome sign that Nigerians generally respect the judiciary for its independence – a potential insurance against resorting to organised violence – the long delays in passing judgments undercuts this reassurance. As it happened, over 300 people were killed during the 2007 elections.
Shortly after those elections, Umaru Yar’Dua, who won the disputed presidential polls, set up the Electoral Reform Committee (ERC) chaired by the respected Justice Muhammadu Uwais to make recommendations about the conduct of future elections. Not entirely satisfied with the work of the ERC, the government in 2009 took the highly unusual step of requesting the British and American governments to arrange an independent electoral assessment team to make recommendations for credible elections in 2011.
The team produced a comprehensive report in January 2010, which made ten concrete recommendations. The key recommendations included the following: the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) should be reconstituted; funding from INEC should be independent of the Presidency and should come directly from the consolidated revenue and voted by the National Legislature; INEC should be transparent and should share vital information with all stakeholders, including all political parties, the media and civil society; elections results should be transparently verified; the judiciary should commit to timely adjudication of electoral disputes and allegations of vote rigging “with possible timeframes specified”; and the state-owned media should provide “equitable, impartial, balanced coverage.”
The government, to its credit, moved quickly to implement a good number of the recommendations. INEC was reconstituted with the respected Jega as chair – though several of the discredited Commissioners who conducted the 2007 polls were not removed. Funding from INEC was delinked from the Presidency, and shortly after Jega requested, and got, over $570 million for the conduct of the polls. INEC then embarked on voter registration, which was completed early this year at the cost of about $230 million. It registered close to 74 million voters, said to be 92% of the voting population, and a significant increase over the about 60 million of 2007.
Jega late last year announced that votes for the National Legislature were to take place on 2 April, those for the Presidency 9 April, and those for Governors on 16 April. A day before the first votes, however, Jega announced that ballot papers and result sheets were not in place for some polling places, and a new schedule for the elections was announced. National Legislative elections would be held on 4 April, presidential elections on 19 April, while gubernatorial and local elections will be held on April 26. On Monday 4 April, however, the elections were again postponed. Some ballot materials had arrived too late at polling stations and Jega said “we cannot proceed with these elections if we want them to be free, fair and credible if there are no result sheets.” This time the blame was placed on the earthquake in Japan, which somehow – and this is difficult to believe - had diverted the plane bringing the voting materials to Nigeria. This means that the entire calendar will have to be revamped.
This was testing the patience of Nigerians to the limit, and the public would have none of Jega’s soothing assurances. The Lagos daily, The Punch, not at all a rowdy tabloid, came out with a frontpage editorial denouncing the “sheer incompetence” of INEC which “has turned a moment of celebration to a flash of queasy foreboding for an enthusiastic nation.’’
Others will not celebrate however timely the polls would have been. Electoral violence, including bomb attacks and assassinations, has already killed dozens.
Meanwhile, there are 21 presidential candidates, but only four have campaigned across the country and, therefore, have any serious chance. Leading is President Goodluck Jonathan, flagbearer for the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), which advertises itself as ‘the largest party in Africa’. It is certainly the richest and most powerful in Nigeria.
Jonathan’s key challengers, however, are no push-overs. Leading them is former military Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari, of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). Buhari overthrew the civilian regime of Shehu Shagari in 1983, and ruled with an iron fist until he was unseated, less than three years later, by General Ibrahim Banbagida.
The other is Nuhu Ribadu, who gained national and international prominence as chair of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. Ribadu is Presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). During the course of his work as head of the country’s anti-corruption commission, Ribadu embarrassed the government by exposing key Governors, State and National Government officials for corrupt practices, and he had to flee the country after receiving death threats.
The fourth leading candidate is Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, the Governor of Kano State. Shekaurau’s appeal, however, is limited largely to the Muslim-dominated northern half of Nigeria, making him a rather long-shot candidate.
All the key challengers of Jonathan, in other words, are from the North. This is likely to play to Jonathan’s favour. From the minority Ijaw – albeit the fourth largest ethnic group in Nigeria – Jonathan appeals to other minority groups, as well as having the support of heavyweights from all the major groups in the country.
A likely scenario – and one which the three opposition candidates clearly hope for – is that none of the candidates will win outright, and there will be a run-off between the two leading candidates. The Constitution stipulates that a candidate wins outright only if he/she secures at least 25% of the votes in at least two-thirds [or 24] of the states of the Federation, and moreover must gain the highest number of votes cast nation-wide.
Jonathan alone can conceivably achieve this feat, though the intensity of the contest puts even that in doubt. Nigeria, in other words, may be having a long and uncertain electoral season. But of course it is a more reassuringly familiar season than the so-called Arab spring
