Does Ramkalawan’s defeat mean Seychelles' democracy is maturing?
As the old guard storms back in recent elections, Seychelles may be entering a phase of stable power alternation.
Patrick Herminie’s triumph in Seychelles’ presidential run-off has been hailed by some as a welcome victory for the political challengers and a corresponding setback for the incumbent – many of whom are the perennial villains of African governance.
The 9-11 October election result has been compared to last month’s defeat of Lazarus Chakwera in Malawi. But both could be seen as rather worrying failures for opposition challengers who overcame considerable obstacles to wrest office from entrenched powers – but couldn’t hold onto the position.
In Malawi, Chakwera lost to Peter Mutharika who had been president from 2014 to 2020 and whose brother Bingu wa Mutharika held the office from 2005 to 2012. It took a historic court reversal of Peter Mutharika’s 2019 victory to winkle him out of office in 2020.
Likewise, Herminie defeated Wavel Ramkalawan who had served just one term. Ramkalawan’s 2020 victory was widely welcomed as a new beginning as he had finally – on his sixth shot – displaced the Danny Faure-led United party, which under different names had governed since its founder, the late France-Albert René, seized power in a 1977 coup.
Ramkalawan swept in as a reformer and promised all sorts of changes. He focused on increasing social protection and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, which damaged the country’s main revenue earner, tourism. Yet five years later, Seychellois decided he hadn’t delivered and voted him out, by a margin of 52.7% to 47.3% in the run-off.
Herminie’s United Seychelles party is now in full control. Last month it also won parliamentary elections with a solid majority, regaining the legislature after previously losing to Ramkalawan’s coalition, Linyon Demokratik Seselwa.
Seychellois have become more concerned about climate change, including rising ocean levels
United Seychelles succeeded the Seychelles People’s United Party led by René, who in 1977 toppled James Mancham’s government just a year after the country gained independence from Britain. René first ran a one-party socialist state, then reluctantly introduced multiparty democracy in 1991 after the Soviet Union’s collapse. He won the first multiparty presidential election in 1993 and retained majorities in the National Assembly until 2016 and the presidency until 2020.
Ramkalawan, a former Anglican priest, first contested the elections in 1998 and then every subsequent poll, including the victorious one in 2020, which some hoped had ushered in a new era. Why didn’t it?
Though Herminie’s distant political ancestry is socialist, there seemed to be few fundamental economic policy differences between him and Ramkalawan.
Both candidates ran spirited campaigns vowing to address key issues for voters, including environmental damage and drug addiction. Estimates are that between 5 000 and 10 000 people out of a population of about 120 000 use heroin. As a doctor and former head of the government’s anti-drug agency, Herminie probably had the edge on the drug issue.
Ramkalawan emphasised his management of Seychelles’s economic recovery from COVID-19 and expansion of social protections. Herminie accused him of presiding over rampant corruption – though his own United Seychelles faced corruption scandals during its 43 years in power. Herminie also promised to cancel a hotel project that environmentalists say threatens a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)-listed coral atoll.
This may have resonated strongly as Seychellois become more concerned about the threats of climate change, including rising ocean levels, which would especially impact an island state.
Ramkalawan may have gone too far with investigations into the René era, straying into authoritarianism
‘Each candidate promised to save the ocean, but it was clear that some were just fishing for votes, which is why the Qatar-funded hotel project near a UNESCO site was a huge sticking point and Hermione used it very well,’ says David Willima, a Researcher on maritime and climate risk at the Institute for Security Studies.
Herminie also pledged to implement recommendations from a truth and reconciliation commission that examined human rights abuses, including torture and disappearances during Rene’s 1977 coup and its aftermath. The resulting 2023 report included calls for reparations to victims.
Investigations into the René era resulted in arrests, including that of his widow Sarah Zarqani-René, over allegations of laundering US$50 million and caching arms, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
But some commentators suggest that Ramkalawan may have gone too far in these efforts, straying into authoritarianismAfrica Confidential noted in April 2024 that these efforts ‘risk damaging the democratic credentials of the Ramkalawan government … Defendants are complaining of poor treatment and inhumane conditions while in custody.’ Perhaps that cost him at the polls.
Africa Confidential also wrote that rising living costs were damaging Ramakalawan’s chances. And: ‘[His] increasing reliance on United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which are investing heavily on tourism on the islands, is raising questions about accountability and environmental conservation as well as their contribution to a more balanced national economy.’
Ultimately, though, voters might have been more swayed by conventional bread-and-butter issues. Seychelles is Africa’s smallest nation both in land size and population, but is the continent’s richest country, with a GDP per capita of US$17 858.80 last year. However, its 23% poverty rate suggests that this high per-capita income is not well distributed.
Seychelles is Africa’s richest country, but its 23% poverty rate suggests high levels of inequality
And Ramkalawan faced strong economic headwinds during Seychelles’ recovery from COVID-19, which hit the island hard because of its heavy reliance on tourism.
‘The outcome follows a pattern we often see when long dominant ruling parties compete after losing their first election,’ Africa Center for Strategic Studies Research Director Joseph Siegle told ISS Today. ‘They still have a sophisticated and well-funded messaging infrastructure, as well as connections with influential actors in society.
‘Therefore, they were paradoxically able to raise allegations of corruption and environmental mismanagement against Ramkalawan despite having had a reputation for such excesses during their long tenure in power.
‘Regardless, the Seychelles benefits from having one of the most independent media sectors in Africa and ranks highly on its anti-corruption efforts. These capacities should help continue to advance transparency and public accountability.’
Perhaps the Seychellois were, like voters elsewhere, expressing the usual unhappiness with the incumbent in the hope that the other candidate could do a better job.
Could that mean Seychelles has entered a phase of stable alternation of power with outcomes determined by nuanced differences rather than major ideological, ethnic, class or other rigid divisions?
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