Can Africa shift from victim to player at COP30?
Shaping global climate diplomacy requires strategic thinking and a new script during the upcoming COP30 negotiations.
Last month’s second Africa Climate Summit (ACS2) in Addis Ababa marked a milestone in Africa’s stance on global climate negotiations, with leaders redefining the continent as one that asserts its agency on climate action.
ACS2 laid the groundwork to shift Africa’s position from victimhood to strategic player ahead of this year’s United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference in Belém, Brazil (COP30).
The summit’s 25 000 participants included heads of state, policymakers, business, civil society and youth. It adopted the Addis Ababa Declaration on Climate Change and Call to Action, which commits to accelerating Africa’s just energy transitions, includes calls for equitable climate finance, and emphasises the need for adaptation.
The declaration, awaiting publication, affirms that climate change is a risk multiplier that worsens pressures on natural resources and impacts peace and stability across Africa. It calls for the finalisation and implementation of the Common African Position on Climate Change, Peace, and Security as a key tool in addressing climate risks.
Now African leaders must translate this intent into concrete negotiating outcomes at COP30. Repositioning Africa as a proactive, assertive actor is vital to securing climate finance and technology transfer, which can boost the resilience of vulnerable communities.
There is a need to redefine adaptation globally, not just as a pathway for survival but for economic development
At ACS2, African leaders and partners launched initiatives such as the Africa Climate Innovation Compact and African Climate Facility. These efforts aim to mobilise US$50 billion annually for climate solutions that accelerate innovation and local projects.
Financial institutions, including the African Development Bank, African Export-Import Bank, Africa50, and Africa Finance Corporation, committed to developing Africa’s renewable energy potential through the US$100 billion Africa Green Industrialisation Initiative.
The ACS2 declaration acknowledges Africa’s limited capacity to meet adaptation costs – an important issue often overlooked by international funders, policymakers and investors. Adaptation faces a massive finance gap, primarily because it is perceived to have limited financial returns and is associated with high risk. Also, the impacts of climate change are difficult to quantify with precision and vary depending on the context.
Leaders called for a legal obligation on adaptation finance from developed countries. They also finalised an agreement to implement the African Development Bank-administered African Climate Change Fund. The fund is a multi-donor trust supported by the Global Center on Adaptation and international governments, including Germany, Italy, Canada, France and Ireland. There can now be a shift from small-scale channelling of funds to larger-scale catalytic climate finance.
Africa receives below 3% of total global finance dedicated to developing countries, with only 36% designated for adaptation. This chronic underinvestment is due to a restrictive climate finance architecture defined by institutional barriers and a preference for mitigation.
For Africa, adaptation is not optional. It is central to resilience, given the scale of climate risks and current vulnerabilities. There is a need to redefine adaptation globally, not just as a pathway for survival but for economic development.
The African Group of Negotiators can leverage its weight as the world's second-biggest negotiating bloc
The ACS2 summit showed the continent’s strategic thinking and ambition for its climate action. Countries called for the Baku to Belém Roadmap of US$1.3 trillion to be used to help close the climate finance gap. They also called for the Global Goal on Adaptation to be finalised, for financial system reforms and for the Loss and Damage Fund to provide simplified, direct access for Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.
Less positive, compared to ACS1 in Nairobi in 2023, was the diluted language ACS2 adopted around fossil fuels, dropping explicit commitments to reduce coal reliance and end fossil fuel subsidies. This was to accommodate varying contexts among African countries, but also reveals the complexity of balancing climate ambition with development in Africa’s energy future.
The climate, peace and security nexus, which links climate risks to stability, was a key area of tension at the summit. Countries like South Africa opposed its inclusion in the declaration, noting that the nexus wasn’t within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change mandate, and including it would dilute Africa’s key messaging at COP30.
The UN framework has not catered for African prosperity, and is unfit for Africa’s realities and development needs. It was historically designed mainly by developed countries, framing climate change as just an environmental challenge – not a complex sustainable development issue.
Also, critical climate finance institutions such as the Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility and Multilateral Development Banks are highly inaccessible for developing countries, which endure complex, stringent conditions and bureaucratic processes.
The African Group of Negotiators can leverage its weight as the biggest negotiating bloc after the Group of 77+China
Most climate finance flowing into African countries is debt-based, adding to their fiscal stress. The climate finance goal adopted at COP29 of at least US$300 billion is not enough, especially when developing countries need US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035.
These limitations present an opportunity for Africa to lead reform of the structures to better suit its needs and resilience. At the same time, Africa cannot rely on these systems alone and must chart its own narrative and priorities to create momentum.
The initiatives launched in Addis Ababa are a chance to turn pledges into action. They provide a good foundation for shaping Africa’s posture in global climate diplomacy, but substantive coordination will be needed to achieve impact.
Leadership is needed to roll out the African Climate Change Fund, using it to mobilise finance and ensure timely access to deal with climate disasters. Locally led climate projects that align with nationally determined contributions for 2025 must be prioritised, and private and public investment brought in.
Africa must adjust its climate persona at the diplomatic level, positioning the continent not just as a beneficiary but a partner, especially regarding climate finance. It must affirm its rich critical minerals as a strategic asset for the world’s energy transition – using them as a bargaining tool to advocate for a transition model benefitting African economies and communities.
The African Group of Negotiators should present a strong, unified stance to ensure clear articulation of Africa’s priorities and establish non-negotiable red lines. It can leverage its weight as the world’s biggest negotiating bloc after the Group of 77+China.
The implications of this repositioning could extend well beyond COP30 and, if applied strategically, could reshape the dynamics of global climate governance. Time will tell whether Africa’s narrative shift proves as powerful in practice as it appears in principle.
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