All Roads Lead Back to Juba
With the world’s attention fixed on the events in Northern Africa, it is critical for the international community not lose sight of the developments unfolding in South Sudan. Significant obstacles remain, including a renewal of violence, before a peaceful and stable democracy can take hold in South Sudan.
Scott Maxwell, Visiting Researcher, Arms Management Programme, ISS Pretoria Office
With democratic uprisings spreading from Tunis to Cairo to Tripoli, the world`s attention is fixed on the events in North Africa and rightly so. Tunisia prepares for elections as a fragile transition plods forward in Egypt. Meanwhile, the bloodletting in Libya continues, with the international community mulling available options. Yet, forgotten in the possibilities of the Arab Spring is the place that might hold more promise - and peril - for democratic prospects elsewhere on the continent: South Sudan. Significant obstacles remain there, including a renewal of violence, before a peaceful and stable democracy can take hold. The challenges are no less urgent and require no less attention than the events unfolding to the north.
The protests in North Africa and the secessionist movement in South Sudan are opposite sides of the same coin - that of self-determination - yet considerably different in form and function. The countries of North Africa are in many ways outliers within the African context. They tend to identify themselves as Muslim, Arab, Mediterranean – and then African. Egypt, in particular, is quite distinct, with a relatively unified and uninterrupted history and culture. In contrast, Sudan is deeply divided along racial, ethnic, and religious lines. Modern Sudan is in many ways a construct of the borders and institutions left behind by the Ottoman, Egyptian, and British colonialists. In this sense, South Sudan’s referendum for independence is more relevant and transferable to other African countries when compared with the popular uprisings in North Africa. Therefore, the international community, specifically the United States, must extend its full economic, political, and diplomatic support to the Government of South Sudan.
On 7 February 2011, the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission announced that 99 per cent of Southerners voted to secede from the North and create an independent state. Shortly thereafter, Omar Al Bashir, President of Sudan, made a public address accepting the results of the referendum, thereby officially supporting the separation of the South. The international community was quick to offer their congratulations and prognoses. A press statement issued by the AU expressed its conviction that ‘Sudan [had] decisively overcome its tragic history of division.’ Susan Rice, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, referred to the referendum results as a ‘turning point in the history of Sudan, closing a long chapter of conflict, oppression, and despair.’ The peaceful referendum and optimistic commentary only briefly assuaged fears about a renewal of violence in Sudan. Unfortunately, these hopeful assessments were premature, and the long chapter of conflict in Sudan is still being written.
Over the past couple of weeks, the Abyei region of Sudan has become a flashpoint of violence. Recently, fighting broke out in the village of Todach on 27th February between Misseriya militias and a Southern police unit alleged to be aligned with the Government of South Sudan and elements of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA). According to the international medical humanitarian organisation Doctors Without Border/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), over a hundred people have been killed and tens of thousands of civilians have been displaced due to the fighting in the Abyei area.
The Satellite Sentinel Project (SSP), a collaboration between the Enough Project, Google, United Nations Satellite Application Operations Programme (UNSAOP), the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative and other organisations, confirm through satellite imagery that ‘buildings consistent with civilian infrastructure appear to have been intentionally burned in Maker Abior and Todach villages.’ The 4 March 2011 SSP report states that the absence of visual scorching around housing structures indicates that the dwellings had been intentionally destroyed. This evidence of violence is a reminder that deep tensions remain unresolved in South Sudan.
The United States was quick to condemn the violent clashes in the Abyei region, urging restraint from all parties, as well as calling on local and national authorities to ensure that the UN Mission in Sudan had access to protect civilians. Additionally, the US sent two senior advisers to bolster the North-South and Dafur peace processes. These positive steps notwithstanding, President Obama has not given Sudan its deserved attention and diplomatic lethargy has set in. America’s engagement in South Sudan’s peaceful progress toward separation is by no means an antidote to the challenges they face, but it would lend the necessary momentum to the proceedings.
South Sudan recently suspended talks with the North over Khartoum’s alleged support of Southern rebels. The two sides were set to resume talks in April, so it remains to be seen if the suspension is permanent. However, in addition to the talks on unsettled post-referendum issues, such as sharing oil revenues, demarcating the border, and resolving the Abyei situation, several other key initiatives have to be undertaken. Foremost, South Sudan needs to reconcile with all militia groups to ensure a long-term peace settlement. This process must include a robust disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) programme aimed at integrating militia members into the SPLA. Next, the North’s meddling with Southern militias should be addressed openly and honestly. Finally, and maybe the most difficult, is for the South to start building the framework for a democratic society. As Mayank Bubna, analyst for the Enough Project, aptly points out, the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) must ‘demonstrate commitment…toward inclusive governance, in the form of a democratic constitutional review process and independent political party and civil society development.’ These are all difficult measures to address and cannot be shouldered alone. As South Sudanese leaders take on the responsibilities of governing, the international community, including the UN, AU, US – and even China – needs to offer its unwavering support to the tenuous democracy emerging in Juba.
The conflicts in Sudan have aroused humanitarian concerns for a long time and it would be inexcusable for the international community to lose interest just as the North and South are on the verge of a new future. The ultimate goal of the people of South Sudan is to establish a fully functioning independent state in peace with its northern neighbour. The stakes are high in Sudan, yet the ultimate outcome will not just determine the life of future generations of Sudanese, but may also create the roadmap for other self-determination struggles on the continent.
