Spotlight: ISS proposes new approach to coup transitions in West Africa
Rushing to new elections without considering what caused the coup could create an unstable government at risk of another overthrow.
Published on 18 September 2024 in
Impact
The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) is promoting a new strategy for regional and international responses to unconstitutional changes of government in West Africa. It comes at a key moment for the region.
In January, the military governments of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger announced they would withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Their decision revealed the deep challenges facing ECOWAS, creating an existential crisis for the regional bloc. This could, however, present an opportunity to reform ECOWAS’ peace and security processes and revise its instruments for addressing violations by elected governments.
The ISS is encouraging a better understanding of the conditions that give rise to coups. It argues that even under military governments, it is important to support economic development and humanitarian aid.
‘I welcome the careful analysis of the history and context of unconstitutional changes of government in this report,’ said Kyle O’Sullivan, Africa Director in Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs. ‘It will certainly prompt us to think more outside the box and reflect on what lessons can be learned from recent history and the responses regionally and internationally and how effective, or not, they have been.’
West Africa has since 2021 seen coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger. The causes include poor economic conditions, slow development, growing unemployment and failed security sector reform. Crises in governance, constitutional manipulation and insecurity linked to crime and terrorism also play vital roles.
Rapid condemnation of a coup is the usual response from regional governments and the international community, followed by demands for prompt elections and the return to civilian leadership.
Several West African countries have had multiple coups. In previous transitions in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Guinea, power was handed back to a civilian government relatively quickly – an average of 17 months after a coup. In most cases though, the newly elected leadership lost popular support, creating fertile ground for another military takeover.
‘This is why there needs to be more focus on structural challenges, internal dynamics and learning from previous transitions,’ says Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, Sahel Project Manager in the ISS Regional Office for West Africa and the Sahel.
He urges regional and international governments to innovate and explore other ways to achieve stability. ‘We have argued for more emphasis on building robust institutions and a social and economic environment conducive to future stability.’
ISS delivered more than 70 briefings to regional governments, diplomats and international organisations
Elected civilian governments are more sustainable if the conditions are in place for development and growth, with investments in health, water, education and infrastructure.
‘Rushing to new elections without considering the causes of coups could create an unstable government at risk of another military intervention,’ Kone says. ‘The return to constitutional order is still the primary objective, but can’t be the sole measure of success.’
The ISS approach was presented at the Lomé Peace and Security Forum in October 2023 and at the United Nations Security Council in January 2024. The Sahel Alliance invited ISS to present its analysis of the implications of coups for development cooperation at a seminar in Brussels.
ISS researchers have delivered more than 70 briefings on transitions in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Guinea to regional governments, the diplomatic corps and international organisations.
ISS also contributed to high-level gatherings such as the Antalya Diplomacy Forum and Munich Security Conference, and briefed the Political Committee of NATO and staff of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel.
Sweden, one of ISS’ core development partners, is seeking to reinforce its regional approach to the Sahel and West Africa. ‘The ISS has helped to inform Sweden’s strategic decisions about regional development cooperation in the complex environment of the Sahel,’ says Camilla Bengtsson, Head of Development Cooperation at the Swedish embassy in Bamako, Mali and former head of regional development cooperation at the Swedish embassy in Addis Ababa.
‘Understanding the context is key for effective development cooperation. The ISS has continuously provided political and security analysis for embassy staff, visiting parliamentarians and our foreign ministry, which allows for a shared understanding among Swedish policy makers.’
For more information contact:
Fahiraman Rodrigue Kone, ISS: [email protected]
Read the ISS’ new report on ‘Rethinking responses to unconstitutional changes of government in West Africa’ here.
