Change story: Responding to Burundi’s slow spiral into crisis

The world’s failure to stop the 1994 Rwandan genocide is a brutal reminder that early warning and risk analysis are vital to the fragile states of central Africa.

Published on 21 September 2016 in Impact

Burundi is one of the world’s poorest nations. The Arusha peace accords balanced ethnic participation in government institutions, but the political crisis over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third mandate threatens to unravel the gains made. In early 2014, ISS researchers detected worrying trends like political intolerance, repressive legislation, and a government weakening its commitment to power sharing ahead of the 2015 elections. Amidst United Nations warnings that the violence may take on ethnic dimensions, the ISS provided evidence-based analysis to inform difficult decisions by African states, aid organisations and the international community.

ISS researchers anticipated the crisis and were at the forefront of reliable reporting and recommendations as it worsened. A special report on Burundi was published in 2014, a full year before Nkurunziza announced his contentious bid for a third term.

‘Our Great Lakes team knew how important it was to examine the worsening pre-election phase,’ says Stephanie Wolters, who heads the ISS conflict prevention and risk analysis division. This made the ISS central to the Burundi conversation in African and international capitals.

ISS researchers anticipated the Burundi crisis and led with reliable reporting as it worsened

The prescient 2014 report analysed Burundi’s historical fragility, current political risks and the role of hardliners in the ruling party. It was a wake-up call to those who were reluctant to criticise what they saw as a peacekeeping success story, in a country where so much had been invested.

‘We could see rumblings within the ruling party, concerns from the media and shrinking political tolerance. We saw the trends early and were able to raise the alarm. The timing of the ISS response set us apart,’ Wolters says.

Nkurunziza’s re-election in July 2015 was followed by a crackdown. More than 450 people have been killed in violence between government security forces and rebels. The UN estimates more than 250 000 Burundians have been displaced and hundreds of opposition politicians, activists and journalists are in exile.

‘The situation in Burundi is complicated, requiring astute reporting and analysis to guide responses,’ Wolters says. ‘We haven’t fixed things, but we’ve made a big difference to the understanding and reaction to the crisis.’

ISS researchers built networks of organisations working on Burundi, among them the International Crisis Group, Amnesty International and Crisis Action. This helped keep the crisis on the international agenda, and ensured a flow of reliable information.

The Burundi situation is complicated, requiring astute analysis to guide responses

Informed early warnings of what to look out for were provided, such as violent activities by the ruling party’s youth militia. Among those asking the ISS for guidance were diplomats, special envoys and The Elders group of independent global leaders who work together for peace and human rights.

‘We know we are having an impact when somebody sees our analysis and asks for guidance,’ Wolters says. ‘It’s a tangible recognition that we know the territory and what is likely to influence stakeholders like the African Union; and what leverage may work on the Burundi government.’