ISS and DIRCO Joint Workshop, BY INVITATION ONLY: Africa and the Rise of the BRIC Countries 2030

Date: 2011-07-07

Venue: , ISS Seminar Room, ISS Pretoria,

A joint workshop by the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation, the Institute for Security Studies and the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver. 

In the context of both rapid change and great uncertainty, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures (IFs with Pardee) have established the African Futures project, which combines the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the ISS with extensive use of the IFs modelling system.

The purpose of this workshop is to introduce futures work to the Policy Research and Analysis Unit (PRAU) at the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO). The workshop will use the IFs software to demonstrate one method of engaging in futures work, including the potential for scenario-development.

IFs is a long-term global integrated assessment model that, based on historical data, trends and dynamic relationships, forecasts thousands of variables stemming from distinct global systems for 183 countries from 2005 to 2100. IFs has proven to be a useful tool for a variety of purposes, including policy projects by the United Nations, the US government and the European Union. It has also been used for thinking critically and analytically about issues surrounding human development and sustainability. Key scenarios have been published in the associated Potential Patterns of Human Progress (PPHP) volumes.

IFs is an open-source computer application that facilitates the assessment of the state of social, ecological and economic systems on a global basis. The integrated assessment platform allows for the exploration of systemic trends, analysis of dynamics and interactions within and across the systems and simulates alternate paths to desired futures, taking into consideration the system as an integrated whole. Although the application is freely available, effective application and use requires training, support and regular use. Guided scenario analysis with the right stakeholders is therefore the most useful and productive use of the model, allowing users to continue free and full use thereafter.

The IFs’ structure is complex, representing a wide range of relationships among the major sub-components presented in Figure 1 below.

The issue that the workshop will explore, using IFs, is: the impact of the rise of the BRIC (and other emerging) countries on Africa’s future, including the implications for South Africa. The workshop will work to a future time-horizon of 2030, although IFs can readily project across a much longer period.

Major transitions are rapidly reshaping Africa. Economic growth has accelerated over the last decade, as have population and urbanisation rates. On the broader stage, but with important regional implications, the rise of the global South – especially the BRICS-countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) - is changing Africa’s trading and investment relationships as well as political alliance patterns. Yet many uncertainties remain. Can Africa diversify its economies and employ its growing populations in manufacturing and services, as well as successfully managing the wealth generated by its raw materials? Will climate change increase pressures on agriculture or will Africa have its own green revolution? How will the continent build the extensive infrastructure that it is in desperately needs? How will external actors, both governments and firms, approach and affect Africa? What will be the quality of national and regional governance? What role will Africa play in global governance? And what are the implications and policy options for South Africa?

The workshop will be divided into four thematic sessions. Since a tool such as IFs (despite its sophistication) is best suited to dynamically project (and interrelate) matters such as demographics, economic growth, energy/food supply/demand, and the like, the utility of a such a tool declines and can best be used to test the implications of specific developments.

Although dedicated to members of PRAU, other SA government departments will be invited to participate in the workshop through DIRCO.

The workshop will follow on from an international workshop on the relationship between Europe and Africa to be hosted at the ISS (Brooklyn Court) on 5 July 2011. This earlier event will also use the IFs software as a tool for thinking about the potential paths for the future between the EU and the AU. Participation in the event of 5 July will be particularly beneficial to those officials that will participate in this workshop of 7 July.

* Since this is a workshop for South Africa, this is about BRICs and not BRICS