South Africa: The economic and political decline of the country
On 20 October 2012 the influential
international magazine The Economist
led with an article titled ‘Sad South Africa: cry, the beloved country’. In the article the author asserts that South
Africa is on the decline both politically and economically and is at its worst
point since the birth of democracy in 1994.
The article points out that the
deterioration in the quality of education over the years has had devastating
consequences. According to the World Economic Forum, South Africa ranks 132nd
out of 144 countries for primary education and 143rd in science and
maths. It is estimated that only 15% of children can read and write at the
minimally prescribed levels by the age of 12. The South African education
system is ranked as being among the worst performing in the Southern African
Development Community (SADC) region. As a result, inequality and unemployment
have worsened. The South African Gini Coefficient, which measures income
inequality, was 0,59 in 1993 and increased to 0,63 in 2011. Poor education has
limited the ability of the country to create jobs and the official unemployment
rate has increased from 20% in 1994 to 25% in 2012. The real unemployment rate, which also
includes those who have given up looking for work, is closer to 40%.
The consequence of this is that in
the last decade the country’s economy has only been able to secure an annual
GDP growth of 2%, while countries north of the Limpopo River record an annual
average of 6%. According to current projections Nigeria should surpass South
Africa as the largest economy in Africa within the next decade. The article
further points out that the ‘[e]conomic malaise and the chronic failure of
government services are an indictment of South Africa’s politicians. Under
apartheid, a role in the ANC was about sacrifice and risk. Today it is a ticket
for the gravy train. Jobs in national and local politics provide access to
public funds and cash from firms eager to buy political influence.’ With the
ANC dominating in the polls and the lack of a constituency-based parliamentary
system, South Africa is de facto a one-party state. The primary source of
accountability comes from the judiciary, the media and civil society. For
example, civil society organisations acting on behalf of the poor frequently
have to turn to the courts to get the government to deliver services such as
the delivery of textbooks, or to prevent the government from acting illegally,
for example when it evicts poor people from their homes without court orders.
It is for this reason that the ruling elite is hostile to these important
democratic institutions and attempts to weaken and undermine them where
possible.
As with many cases of open
criticism of the political leadership of South Africa, the messengers were
attacked. As it is not possible to argue with the facts in the article, which
are well known, President Jacob Zuma first attacked the media for negative
reporting. Later, on 21 October, the Presidency issued a statement in which he
outlined the positive achievements of the past 18 years. The downgraded credit
rating the country received from two rating agencies is contextualised as a
sign of the times, as a number of countries, even in Europe, are subjected to
the same fate. He emphasises that, despite the decreased credit rating, South
Africa has had a lot of economic successes. For example, he cites the inclusion
of South Africa in the Citigroup World Government Bond Index (WGBI), which
makes it the first African country and the 4th emerging market to be
included in the index. The 10% increase in tourism over the past year is
welcomed and it is pointed out that since apartheid there has been increased
access to clean water and health facilities, and the country has achieved considerable
success in combating HIV/Aids. There are currently 1,7 million people on ARVs
and the child mortality rate has decreased by 50%. The average lifespan has
also increased from 48 to 54 in 2011. Foreign investment has been sustained
largely because the country is classified as an emerging market.
Despite these successes, the
article does point out that leadership is a key factor in the performance of
the country during this turbulent economic climate. Under the leadership of
President Zuma, corruption and the subsequent looting of state resources have
become more blatant. The projected stagnation of economic growth coupled with
high levels of corruption could have a deteriorating effect on the country’s
economic situation. At a lecture at the University of Fort Hare on 19 October
2012, Former President Thabo Mbeki stated that he was ‘deeply troubled by the
feeling that our beloved motherland is losing its sense of direction’. He was
commenting on the lack of leadership in the government and the sense of
uncertainty this created regarding the future of the country. He noted that in
the past joining the ANC meant that a person had to sacrifice, but since 1994
there had been comrades who joined in order to ensure political appointment. He
acknowledged his role in the deterioration of leadership and identified this as
the main obstacle to ensuring that South Africa survives the current crisis.
Although his speech was met with criticism and is largely viewed as an attack
on the current leadership, his words echo the current international perception
that South African leadership has lost legitimacy. This is emphasised by the
Marikana shooting and the wildcat strikes that are spreading across the country
and are expected to continue for at least a year.
Although the ANC’s national
conference at Mangaung may signify hope for a change of leadership, it is still
unclear who will run against President Zuma for the position of ANC president.
The current political culture within the ANC does not encourage competition and
as a result there is no debate on what each candidate will bring to the party
in terms of leadership. The perception that if a person runs against the
President it means he/she undermines the ANC, only encourages division within
the party. Although Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe has been nominated as a
presidential candidate, he has to date not accepted the nomination and no one
is sure of his intentions. COSATU president Sdumo Dlamini has said that he
could lose everything if he dared to run against President Zuma at the elective
conference, emphasising the lack of appreciation for democratic practices among
the ruling elite. Therefore, it is expected that President Zuma will be elected
to another term as ANC president.
Many are hoping that President
Zuma’s second term will be similar to that of former Brazilian President Luiz
Inácio Lula da Sliva, in which he focused on ensuring a positive legacy. In
such a scenario President Zuma would be hard on corruption and crime and
actively work to improve the situation in the country, rather than ensure the
protection of politically connected cadres. However, unlike Lula, President
Zuma faces pending corruption charges and his immediate family have become
dramatically richer during his presidency. In addition, he used R238 million of
taxpayers’ money to fund extravagant upgrades to his private homestead in
Nkandla. This amount could have provided 3 600 families with low-cost housing,
or paid the salaries of thousands of teachers, doctors and social workers. His
complete lack of shame over such blatant extravagance suggests he is unlikely
to act in the interest of the country any time soon.
It is undeniable that the country
is currently in an economic and political decline. South Africans across the board are
increasingly aware of this and there are moves afoot to start new political
formations. Hopefully, this will lead to healthy political competition in the
future when South Africans band together to hold their leaders directly
accountable through the ballot box. The 2014 elections may present the first
signs of this. It will, however, be important to carefully monitor the
appointments made to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). There will be
those in the ruling elite who will not want to risk being voted out of power
and will be more than willing to rig the elections to maintain their undeserved
opulent lifestyles.
Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division
