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Breaking Somalia’s cycle of electoral crises

What sequencing of political incentives, trust-building and inclusion can prevent Somalia's 2026 vote from repeating past deadlocks?

Somalia has struggled with state-building for over a decade due to divisions among its political elite that have prevented consensus on state structure and left institutions fragile and insecurity entrenched. Constitutional and electoral reforms remain central to disputes, and the proposed transition to direct elections has heightened tensions. Implementing these reforms requires a sequenced transition that aligns political incentives, builds trust and gradually expands inclusion.


About the author

Selam Tadesse Demissie is a Researcher in the Horn of Africa Programme at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa. She has nine years’ experience analysing security dynamics in the Greater Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, specialising in conflict analysis, peacebuilding, interstate relations and regional cooperation. A former attorney, she produces research to inform policy on complex security challenges.

Development partners
This policy brief is funded by the Government of the Netherlands. The ISS is grateful for support from the members of the ISS Partnership Forum: the Hanns Seidel Foundation, the European Union, the Open Society Foundations and the governments of Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden.
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