Cars and robbers: Has car theft crime prevention worked too well?

This paper addresses a central puzzle that confronts anyone who seeks to understand how the level of property crime has changed in South Africa

This paper addresses a central puzzle that confronts anyone who seeks to understand how the level of property crime has changed in South Africa over the past decade. The issue is that although important forms of property crime – most notably car theft and car hijacking – have fallen quickly, the overall level of robbery has risen quickly. What accounts for this disparity? The essence of the argument is that the increase in robbery is not a mere reporting phenomenon. Instead it reflects two underlying phenomena. The first, and quantitatively more important, is that the average value of a robbery (most of which, in this country, are muggings) have risen as a result of the increasing prevalence of cell phones. This is uncontroversial. The second is that as vehicle security has improved and tracking technology has taken root, there has been some degree of displacement from car theft to robbery.

About the author

Antony Altbeker joined the ISS’s Crime and Justice Programme as a senior researcher in January 2005. Antony works principally on policing issues. He has previously worked at the Centre for the Study of Violence and Reconciliation, the Graduate School of Public and Development Management at Wits University, the National Treasury and the Secretariat for Safety and Security. He has a Masters in Economics from the University of the Witwatersrand. His first book, The Dirty Work of Democracy: A year on the streets with the SAPS, was published by Jonathan Ball Publishers last year.