Monograph 70: The Impact of Small Arms in Tanzania: Results of a Country Survey, Clare Jefferson and Angus Urquhart
The survey had three primary aims, which were to illustrate:
- the nature and extent of firearm proliferation within Tanzania;
- how the problem of firearm proliferation manifests itself in communities; and
- the resources and capacity in communities that might be utilised to address the problem as it exists.
The survey was
conducted as part of a broader initiative of the Tanzanian government,
involving both the government and civil society, to research firearm
proliferation within its territory.
The survey, conducted between 1 and 18 August 2001, comprised
responses from almost 2,900 Tanzanian residents across 12 of the
country`s 21 provinces. There were 41 fieldworkers utilised in the
completion of surveys, all of whom were junior police officers within
the Tanzania Police Force.
The first section of the report comprises the introduction. It
outlines the purpose of the survey, as well as methodological
considerations such as the sample demographics, research assumptions and
data consideration. The second section of the report covers indicators
of the social environment, focusing particularly on community
structures, cohesion and interaction.
The main findings in this section are as follows:
- The overall impression is of a society in which social
interaction is reasonably good, although there was a high degree of
variation across the individual indicators and consequently clear trends
were difficult to identify.
- Some regions are more inclined to help other
community members (such as helping the sick) and to participate in
community activities (such as attending church or mosque, helping with
community projects and attending community meetings) than others.
The third
section of the report focuses on economic indicators. Of the indicators
measured in this section, these are divided into those that measure the
current financial standing of the household, those that provide an
indication of the financial situation to come and those that provide a
picture of the past financial situation.
The main findings in this section are as follows:
- The economic indicators point towards an impending
economic downturn in a number of areas, namely Kagera, Kigoma, Mbeya,
Morogoro and Tanga. However, despite the apparent economic downturn
people do not seem to be going hungry.
- Those regions in which a serious firearm problem has
been identified—Kigoma, Kagera and Morogoro—were also among those that
appear to be entering a period of economic decline.
- There was a correlation between a worsening economic situation and a poor perceived sense of safety.
The fourth
section of the report considers indicators of firearm proliferation
(such as the frequency of hearing gunshots, the frequency of firearms
being used in crime and the extent to which respondents are exposed to
violent crimes involving firearms), shifts in the number of firearms in
the area, the extent of firearm ownership and potential firearm
ownership, as well as the extent of concern about the problem of
firearms and the fear of injury.
The main findings in this section are as follows:
- There was widespread support for improving and tightening controls on firearms in Tanzania.
- Firearms are having a growing negative impact in
Tanzania, although overall the situation does not as yet constitute a
crisis. Firearm penetration appears to be serious in the regions of
Kigoma, Kagera and Morogoro, and also, although to a lesser extent, in
Arusha, Mwanza and Pwani.
- The exposure to firearms was relatively low across
Tanzania while firearm ownership varied across the twelve sample
regions. Morogoro appears to have high levels of ownership and there
seems to be a high demand for firearms in the region. There also appear
to be relatively high levels of firearm possession (mainly in illicitly
acquired or possessed firearms) in Kagera and Kigoma.
- The levels of the use of firearms in crime, exposure
to violent conflict involving a gun and the frequency of hearing
gunshots were relatively low, although certain regions did appear to be
more afflicted than others; notably Kigoma, Mwanza and Morogoro.
- Kigoma and Morogoro appear to be the regions in which
firearm penetration is greatest. The region of Kilimanjaro is where
firearm proliferation is perhaps lowest.
- Kigoma, Pwani and Kagera are the regions where the
impact of firearms is greatest, while Mbeya and Arusha appear to be the
least affected.
The fifth
section considers a range of indicators of safety such as perceptions of
safety, policing and crime, as well as the impact of armed conflict.
The main findings in this section are as follows:
- Tanzania appears to be a relatively safe place during
daylight hours, with the exceptions of Kagera and Kigoma, and although
the environment is perceived to be worse after dark—very markedly so in
the regions of Pwani and Morogoro— the overall perception of security
does not raise considerable concerns.
- There is a correlation between the high numbers of
firearms in Kagera and Kigoma and the perceived sense of insecurity in
these regions.
- There also appears to be a correlation between the
high sense of insecurity after dark in Morogoro and the high incidence
of firearm ownership. A similar but less obvious correlation can also be
identified in Pwani where there is a generally poor safety environment
and firearm ownership is relatively high.
- Only in Kagera did a significant proportion of
respondents turn to the police as role players for conflict resolution.
Tribal leaders and existing community leaders were considered to be much
better suited to conflict resolution. This suggests that the overall
perception of the utility of the police may not be so good.
- Crime rates are generally low in Tanzania. What crime
is committed tends to be mainly theft, predominantly house-breaking and
cattle theft. There does not seem to be any one region that is more
seriously affected than others and the theft that does occur seems to be
largely opportunistic.
- On the whole, the respondents have very little direct
experience of armed conflict and almost none have ever been forced to
move due to armed conflict.
The final
section of this report contains an analysis of the results of the
survey, drawing together the main findings and offering some
explanations of what the survey outlined in terms of firearm
proliferation within Tanzania.
In summary, the main demand factors for firearms seems to be
insecurity linked closely to a worsening economic situation, as opposed
to a perception of risk of violent crime. Although over one quarter of
the survey sample expressed the willingness to own a firearm, there was
strong support for more effective measures to control firearms. Strongly
informed by existing levels of confidence in the police, and evidence
gained from whom the respondents turn to for help and for conflict
resolution, any national initiative to tackle firearm proliferation
would need to be a partnership between government and civil society. At
the community level, the generally strong social cohesion coupled with
the widespread recognition of the need for controls suggests that
community-based firearm control initiatives are likely to be embraced.
