Will any of the current South African opposition parties rule South Africa one day?
It remains to be seen if multitude of crises afflicting the ANC will realign the country’s political landscape in the near future. While change will eventually happen, it may not result in current opposition parties gaining power.
Published on 30 November 2012 in
ISS Today
By
Gareth Newham
Head, Justice and Violence Prevention, ISS Pretoria
South African opposition parties have been in a triumphant mood this week as they’ve claimed two ‘victories’ over the African National Congress (ANC). The first was was the High Court judgement confirming that an opposition party motion for a no-confidence vote on President Jacob Zuma should be debated in the national assembly ‘within a reasonable time’. This after the ANC had initially prevented such a debate from happening at all. Secondly, the ANC was forced to withdraw legislation that would eventually lead to the roll out of the deeply unpopular plan to introduce e-tolling on the national roads in Gauteng. Democratic Alliance (DA) spokesman Mmusi Maimane lauded the two incidents as an indication of the possible ‘realignment of politics’ in South Africa. This raises the question as to whether opposition parties are correct to predict a fundamental shift in the political landscape where the dominance of the ANC can be effectively challenged?
Over the past few months South Africans have witnessed a gamut of events that in more mature constitutional democracies would most likely have resulted in a change of power, if not the resignation and prosecution of senior government officials. While many examples abound, a few recent incidents include:
- The Marikana tragedy on 16 August in which 34 striking mine workers were shot dead by the police. These shootings were both preceded and followed by a series of events that exposed considerable leadership weaknesses in the ANC, to prevent or respond appropriately to the immense tragedy termed as simply a ‘mishap’ by President Zuma;
- ‘Nkandlagate’, the scandal involving the upgrade of President Zuma’s private residence to the tune of R 248 million. Recent evidence leaked to the media reveals that Zuma was fully appraised of these unnecessary and extravagant developments in spite of his attempts before parliament to obfuscate the matter.
- The Limpopo textbook scandal in which the government repeatedly failed to ensure the delivery of books to schools in the province well into the second half of the year and despite court orders to do so. Minister of Basic Education, Angie Motshekga, stated that the failed delivery of books was neither a “scandal” nor a “crisis.”
- The Police headquarters lease scandal involving R1.7 billion. National police commissioner, Bheki Cele and Public Works Minister Gwen Mahlangu-Nkabinda were dismissed from their posts following two separate inquiries that found they acted unlawfully. However, President Zuma has to date failed to launch criminal investigations against these disgraced politicians for alleged corruption as recommended by a judicial board of inquiry. Mahlangu-Nkabinda remains a member of parliament and continues to draw a state salary.
- Four of the five most senior officials elected by the ANC to administer the Northern Cape have been implicated in fraud and corruption scandals. These have resulted in criminal charges against political heavy weight and Finance MEC John Block. Despite being out on bail of R50 000 he was allowed to present the provincial budget this week on behalf of the ANC.
- Data collected by the Public Service Commission shows in the two years since Jacob Zuma was sworn in as president in 2009/10, the cost of financial misconduct committed by public servants increased by 169% rising to R932 million in 2010/11 and expected to surpass R1 billion in 2011/12.
These are but a few of the many examples of misconduct and corruption committed by President Zuma and those he appointed in government to ensure a “better life for all.” In his recent book “Zuma Exposed”, investigative journalist Adriaan Basson carefully and in great detail explains how Zuma’s presidency can be summed up in three short points, “Bad decisions, bad judgement and bad leadership choices.”
Of course it does not have to be this way. South Africa could easily be on a different course that builds on the many significant improvements ushered in by the advent of a constitutional democracy. Such achievements include a world-class constitution with a strong Bill of Human Rights, an independent judiciary, regular transparent elections and an extensive social grants system benefiting some 15 million South Africans. These are by no means small achievements and ironically are in place because of the ANC. However, weaknesses in how the ANC selects leadership have ushered in what Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi has described as a “predatory elite” more concerned with the spoils that state power brings than the responsibilities that come with it.
It is clear that South Africans are moving beyond the post apartheid euphoria and as a result of ongoing governance failures, the ANCs credentials as a liberation movement are starting to wear thin. For instance, it emerged from the latest census that 1.32 million youths between the ages of 20 and 24 are unemployed and some 417 000 have given up on looking for employment. With every passing election the “born free” youthful cohort will be making political choices based on current challenges and not past glories. Among the majority of the black segment of this cohort for instance, these opportunities should ideally enable them to attain their aspirations for a life better than that experienced by their parents before the advent of democracy.
Given that this year marks the occasion of the ANC National Conference, it would be fair to expect that most branch members would be more than ready to introduce new leadership in an effort to save both the party and the country. Indeed, there is little to demonstrate that in the past five years, progress has been made to address the high levels of unemployment, poverty and inequality threatening the future prosperity of the country. Of course, it may still happen that there is a dramatic change in the leadership of the ANC given that many in the party are deeply disappointed by the failings of the current leadership. However, change looks unlikely at present as many of the ANC structures along with its alliance partners support the status quo either for their narrow short-term benefit, or in the belief party unity is more important than reform for future prosperity and success.
While this sorry state of affairs may assist the established political opposition to grow, it remains to be seen whether this will be enough for them to unseat the ANC in the future. While support for the ruling party is waning, it is not necessarily translating into votes for existing opposition parties. The most notable consequence is that of a growing self-disenfranchised population who simply don’t vote. The simple reason is that there is no credible opposition political party at present that clearly articulates the concerns and aspirations of the poor and lower-working classes. This space is occupied at present by the ANC and it is failing to deliver. As a result, over 12 million people ‘punished’ the ANC in the past national election by withholding, rather than transferring their vote to another political party.
The most likely way in which the ANC could be dislodged in the near future, is if an inclusive, left wing, labour orientated political party was to emerge with a focus on improving the lives of the poor. This may come about in a number of ways. It may emerge through various grass-roots social movements forming into a new political party. The big challenge for these groups will be to organise disparate and locally focused communities into a coherent national political party. Another scenario could see the COSATU or one of its larger more worker-orientated breaking away from ANC if it starts to lose too much electoral support. The unions are already organised nationally and would prove a potent counter balance to the ANC for those seeking an alternative. The unions will have to choose relatively soon though because the longer they are associated with the failings of the ANC the less likely they will be to present a credible alternative. The mass resignations from NUM on the platinum and gold mining industry will put the pressure on. Whatever, happens South Africans are in for interesting times.
Hamadziripi Tamukamoyo, Researcher and Gareth Newham, Head, Governance, Crime and Justice Division, ISS Pretoria Office
