Trouble in Nigeria? Between an Oil War and a Succession Battle
blurb:isstoday:190908nigeria
19 September 2008: Trouble in Nigeria? Between an Oil War and a Succession Battle
Even more than is usual for Nigeria, the country currently faces critical challenges. For some time now, Nigeria has been suffering the effects of a multi-layered crisis, the most conspicuous manifestations of which are the oil-related insurgency in the Niger-Delta and recurring concerns about President Yar’Adua’s health, which have given rise to unseemly, and probably premature, speculation and manoeuvring within the country’s political leadership.
President Umaru Yar’Adua’s ascent to power was marred by electoral controversies that cast doubt upon the legitimacy of his victory, but his subsequent success in his legal battle with his political opponents and the welcome emergence of elements of coherent leadership were helping to reconcile the population with his presidency. His vision of transforming Nigeria to assume its place among the top twenty of the world’s economies by 2020 was welcomed by many of his countrymen, most of whom remained mired in conditions of poverty, instability and disease despite the immense material and human resources at hand.
The current rising tensions in the Niger Delta provide a reminder that Nigeria’s democratic consolidation and economic recovery confront serious challenges and formidable obstacles. The conflict in the Delta escalated last weekend when the Federal Government’s Joint Military Forces (JMF) attacked positions of the Movement for the Emancipation for the Niger-Delta (MEND), the principal armed group fighting the government over the management of the natural resources of the region. The initial objective of the JMF mission was to rid the Delta of criminal elements obstructing peace and development there. There is now considerable fear, however, that the mobilisation of other militia groups could transform a skirmish into a full-blown civil war in the Delta. Has the Federal Government abandoned its dialogue initiative? Has the Nigerian leadership contemplated carefully the implications of its military operations in the region?
MEND retaliation came in the form of a rash of violent attacks codenamed “Hurricane Barbarossa” aimed at crippling Nigeria’s oil production. This is not the first time government forces and militants have clashed in the region; recently, however, the number of attacks, kidnappings and incidents of sabotage have caused Nigeria to lose its position as sub-Saharan Africa’s a leading oil producer. There has also been serious decline in oil production from 2.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to 1.9 million bpd. Government officials themselves have acknowledged that some 115,000 bpd of oil production might have been lost as a result of the last four days of the conflict. It is highly unlikely that under present conditions, Nigeria will be able to achieve its target of 4.6 million bpd by 2010. Many foreign workers are now being kidnapped and the insurgents are demanding that foreign companies evacuate and leave the region.
MEND emerged in 2006 as a conglomerate of indigenous militants groups fighting the Federal Government over the uneven distribution of resources and the serious environmental degradation caused by the activities of multinational oil companies. MEND also alleged that the government’s management of the region’s oil resources benefited foreign oil companies at the expense of local people whose socio-economic conditions steadily deteriorated. Early attempts by local groups to draw government’s attention to the problems peacefully met with a harsh response, highlighted by the execution of local writer-activist Ken Saro-Wiwa. In a military campaign since 2006, the Federal forces have not been able to eradicate MEND or restore peace in the region. The guerrilla style of the movement and the quality of their military arsenal raise concerns over the latter’s real motives, its sources of funding, its leadership and command structures.
The government’s latest resort to military means may have taken many Nigerians by surprise, especially since many other avenues seemed to be under consideration by way of attempting a sustainable resolution. Even though the proposed summit on the region was aborted, President Umaru Yar’Adua had not yet given up officially on resolving this crisis through dialogue and institutional reforms, as shown by the government’s recent decision to create a ministry of Niger Delta.
There appear to be two trends developing within the power centres of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP): those who favour dialogue; and those who prefer a military option for whatever reasons. The danger of this latest military operation is that it comes at a time when President Yar’Adua is facing health problems that have initiated a serious debate about the presidential succession.
Balancing military option with dialogue in addressing the Niger Delta conflict may prove difficult for a civilian president striving to give substance to the rule of law to consolidate the country’s democracy. Should one interpret the recent changes in the military leadership as a result of conflict of interests? In the Nigerian political context, where the army remains an essential component of the political landscape, the move by the president to reshuffle both his military and civilian cabinet is seen as an attempt to bolster his control over state institutions as he seeks to complete a successful mandate. Although the government might want to discourage dangerous secessionist sentiments in Nigeria by means of stick and carrot in the Niger Delta crisis, these military operations could provoke a marked deterioration in the socio-political environment in the region.
In the meantime, rumours about President Yar’Adua’s health have also set in motion a subtle battle for the presidential succession. The sacking of the Secretary General of the Federal Government, Baba Gana Kingibe, suspected of manoeuvring to succeed the President in the event of his sudden death or incapacitation, was intended to pre-empt the damage that could result from infighting for the presidential seat. The dismissal was also intended to curtail the threatening polarisation of the ruling party, where internal struggles risk dividing and weakening the current administration. Given President Yar’Adua’s dual handicaps (contested legitimacy and controversies around his health), he needs to exercise great care as he attempts to manage the current crisis in the Niger Delta and maintain the momentum of national transformation.
David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
