The Future of Opposition Parties after the Recall of Mbeki
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9 January 2009: The Future of Opposition Parties after the Recall of Mbeki
When former President Thabo Mbeki announced his resignation publicly in September last year, after the ANC took a decision to recall him, the ANC did logically anticipate rebellion as the organisation had been divided since the December 2007 ANC national conference at Polokwane. What it did not seem to have anticipated , however, is a breakaway party that also consists of senior members of the ANC and the subsequent perceived revival of existing opposition parties. Indeed, former President Mbeki had mentioned that a strong opposition to the ANC would come from within the movement itself. What the Congress of the People (COPE) has managed to do is change the political landscape in South Africa toone in which opposition parties feel that they stand a chance to seriously challenge the ANC.
The recall of Mbeki has been a drawback for the ANC campaign. In the 2004 elections, there was tension between the ANC and its alliance partners regarding disagreements over macro-economic policy. These tensions were however resolved quickly. In the current situation, given the emergence of COPE, the ANC finds itself having to campaign more vigorously than they did in the 2004 elections against opposition parties.
The overwhelming support that the ANC has enjoyed over the years has projected South Africa as a one-party state. However, the national convention, summoned by leaders of COPE in which representatives of opposition parties also took part, allowed for opposition parties to re-affirm themselves against the ANC. In an article published by the Mail & Guardian,the leader of the United Democratic Movement (UDM), Bantu Holomisa stated that he attended the convention in order to give "moral support to build an alternative and that such an alternative should reflect the breakdown of demographics in the country." It seems likely that other opposition parties will cooperate with COPE rather than with the ANC after the elections.
Opposition parties have certainly tried to capitalise on the perceived lack of support for the ANC since the recall of Mbeki. One such opposition party is the UDM. Its leader, Holomisa has been quite prominent in what is historically known as the heartland of the ANC, the Eastern Cape. COPE has also targeted the region in recent weeks. The province, since the recall of Mbeki, has been the battleground between the ruling ANC, COPE and the UDM. That both COPE and the ANC will launch their election manifesto in that province is not a coincidence.
Another fiercely contested region is that of the Western Cape. The Independent Democrats and the Democratic Alliance (DA) started negotiations in October for a coalition government of opposition parties in the Western Cape already. It seems electorates in the province have felt marginalised by the ruling party. The recalling of Mbeki just catalysed the loss of support in the province even further. As a result, this region is an opportune place for opposition parties to launch their attack on the ANC. TheMunicipal by-elections that took place on 10 November last year in the Western Cape, in which opposition parties prevailed over the ANC, proves the notion that opposition parties have reason to be more hopeful.
Even more costly for the ANC against opposition parties is the much contested dissolution of the Scorpions. In terms of maintaining democracy the investigative unit’s ability to touch the ‘Untouchables’ has given citizens hope that accountability- as one of the factors to ensure democracy- is being upheld. The refusal from President Kgalema Motlanthe to establish a commission of enquiry to probe the arms deal can certainly be another opportunity for opposition parties to cry foul and, therefore, better increase their strength.
Even if opposition parties do not tangibly grow in strength, they are certainly more hopeful. The DA for one, launched its new colours and the withering Pan-Africanist Congress (PAC) also got a makeover. While COPE is good for opposition parties, it does not necessarily guarantee them a win in the next general elections.
Comments from DA leader Helen Zille also point in the direction of a coalition in the future.She recently stated: “...Nationally after the 2014 election- either on our own or in coalition with other parties.”Holomisa has also noted that if policies of COPE and DA were similar to that of his party, they would coalesce with opposition parties. Could this possible coalition lead to a significant decline in the support of the ANC?
Whether or not the ANC will winthis year’s electionis in the hands of the electorate. What is clear, though, is that opposition parties in the Western Cape have been successful in the recent by-elections. The DA managed to win seats and COPE has managed to win even more.
Opposition parties gained momentum post- Polokwane and, with the assistance of COPE,they have been revived and see light at the end of the tunnel. Futuristically, therefore, it can be argued that these opposition parties do stand a better chance in the 2014 elections than they did in previous elections and will be even stronger if the proposed opposition parties alliances are solidified.
Tizina Ramagaga is an Intern in the Crime Justice and Politics Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria) office
