Somalia - Can the UN Succeed where IGAD Failed?
blurb:isstoday:07052008igadsomalia
7 May 2008: Somalia - Can the UN Succeed where IGAD Failed?
The International Contact Group for Somalia (ICG) held an unprecedented meeting in Oslo, Norway, from 29-30th April 2008. At this meeting, Norway handed over the chair of the group to the United Nations Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG) in order to further strengthen the leadership role of the UN in Somalia.
The meeting discussed the political process, the security situation and the humanitarian conditions in Somalia. It also signaled Norway’s reluctance to continue as member of the ICG and as an active peace broker internationally.
Amongst the key actors at the meeting were the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Italy, Tanzania, Kenya, Egypt, Yemen, Canada, Norway, the United Nations (SRSG/UNPOS, UNDP, UNICEF and OCHA), the European Union (the Presidency, the European Commission and the Council Secretariat), the African Union, the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and the League of Arab States.
Norway dispelled any concerns about the handover of the chair to the UN and promised to continue to actively support the UN initiative and especially the humanitarian assistance efforts. The country further made a commitment to give more than 250 million Norwegian Kroner ($50 million) to Somalia in 2008, three-quarters of which will be in the form of humanitarian assistance. However, several reasons may have precipitated Norway’s decision.
The first is that the country is disillusioned by the relapse of conflicts after her successful peacemaking efforts in a number of countries. This has put the country between a rock and a hard place. These include the ongoing conflict in Sri Lanka between the government and Tamil Tigers and the protracted conflict between Israel and Palestine, especially after the Oslo Peace Accord.
Secondly, in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia's dissatisfaction with Norway's policy in the region led to the expulsion of six Norwegian diplomats from Addis Ababa. Locally, Norway was perceived by the Somali diaspora-community as biased and deceived by the United States’ vision of the conflict as part of the global war on terror in Somalia. And last but not least, the recent arrest of two members of the Somali community for the alleged support of the Somali insurgency have culminated in a frosty relationship between the government and the community and elicited protests from the Somali diaspora.
The key resolution from the ICG Somalia meeting is the acknowledgment of the absolute necessity for peace talks between the parties under the auspices of the SRSG and it further underlined the need for vigilance in protecting the dialogue from internal as well as external spoilers. It is noteworthy that the UN-led peace efforts in the Horn of Africa and Somalia in particular, were long overdue.
The conflict in Somalia is escalating beyond the imagination of the international community, which, in the beginning of 2007 erroneously postulated that the departure of the Union of Islamic Courts and the installation of the internationally backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu heralded peace and stability in Somalia and the region. The current UN peace initiative between the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) and the TFG which is due to commence on 10 May 2008, will not only revitalize the peace process, but will also signify a "make or break" scenario for peace in Somalia and the region.
The UN leadership’s peace-making effort in Somalia creates both hope and fear in that:
- It will refocus global attention on the Somalia crisis, the ongoing peace initiative and the humanitarian crisis. However, the peace efforts need to be insulated from the UN bureaucracies.
- If the UN is serious about peace-making efforts in Somalia, the initiative is likely to receive serious attention from key actors and also has a possibility of attracting international political and diplomatic support. However, the US and its allies’ desire to reconstitute Somalia in their own vision may not help the situation. For instance, the latest US designation of Al-Shabab as a terrorist organization portend an obstacle to the peace process, given that there is a thin line if any, between the UIC, Al Shabab and the Somali people as indicated by the popularity of the insurgency.
- The UN has the opportunity to take stock of the current reality of the Islamic political landscape in Somalia and especially the role of Islamic political movements in peace and stability. Thus the UN would learn from the failure of IGAD peace process which locked out other key actors and became a prisoner of Somali clan politics. The process must be all inclusive in terms of actors and issues to enhance the ownership of the final agreement.
- It gives the UN opportunity to understand the Horn of Africa whose conflicts are inter-related due to the array of actors and interlocking interests. This means that it would be difficult to resolve the Somalia peace process without taking into account and putting efforts towards resolving similar conflicts like the Ethiopian-Eritrea war and the Ogaden conflict among others.
The key drawback to the UN led initiative is the daily combat between foreign forces and local insurgents who continue to flout international human rights and humanitarian laws.
Mohammed Guyo, Research Fellow, IEDS, Norway; ISS Research Associate, Nairobi
