According to preliminary results released by Rwanda’s National Electoral Commission, the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) candidate President Paul Kagame is the winner of the 2010 presidential elections, held on Monday 9 August, with 93% of the votes counted in 11 out of 30 districts. Kagame, who called the election democratic, had reportedly already begun planning his victory party before polls closed.

Critics contend that heavy-handed measures kept opposition candidates from running and that the government clamped down on the media. Kagame’s seven-year term will, if the constitution is respected, be his last. What is less clear is whether the ledger of his achievements will overall be positive. Mr. Kagame is determined to defend his record, especially in economic development, against a rising tide of criticism of his human-rights record, especially abroad.

The incumbent, who has been president since 2000 and de facto leader since 1994, following RPF`s victory over the interim government, is entitled to serve for another 7 year term. Kagame is widely praised for bringing peace to the country following the war and genocide, although he is also criticised by some opposition figures and human rights groups for being heavy-handed in dealing with dissent. Kagame’s past seven years in office have seen impressive growth in the economy and infrastructure, and a rise in international investment and tourism.

The unofficial election campaign began in January 2010 when Victoire Ingabire, a Hutu who had been living abroad for some years, returned to Rwanda and announced her candidacy for the presidency. Ingabire caused some controversy in the country following her arrival, with comments relating to the genocide. The government accused her of breaking the country`s strict laws regarding genocide denial, and she was arrested in April 2010, released later on bail, but was prohibited from running in the elections.

In May, President Kagame was officially endorsed as the RPF`s candidate for the election, at the party`s national congress. Kagame then became the first candidate to be accepted when he presented his papers in July. The next candidate to register was Vice-President of the Chamber of Deputies and former Minister of Health Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, who won the nomination for the Social Democratic Party on 22 May. In June, the Liberal Party named its candidate, Vice-President of the Senate and former Minister of Commerce Prosper Higiro, who defeated Stephanie Mukantagara for the nomination, after the latter pulled out of the race at the last minute. The final candidate to successfully register was Senator Alvera Mukabaramba of the Party for Progress and Concord.

Two of three other contenders failed to get official documents through and this did not get accepted into the race; while the other party was said to have effectively disintegrated, leaving no real opposition to Kagame. The three candidates running against Kagame supported him in the 2003 presidential elections and are described by other parties as “RPF`s political satellites" - token opposition used to maintain a facade of pluralism.

Although the election campaign was mostly conducted peacefully, there have been a number of incidents, which attracted international attention. In February and March 2010 there were a series of small attacks in Kigali, killing one person and injuring several, which were linked to the upcoming elections. This, and other bombings in the country were blamed to the exiled former Rwandan ambassador to India, General Faustin Kayumba Nyamwasa. Nywamwasa went into exile and was later the victim of an assassination attempt in South Africa two months ago, an incident which caused South Africa to recall its ambassador to Rwanda to discuss the situation. A journalist who claimed to have uncovered the regime`s responsibility in the attempted murder was shot dead days later and critics pointed the finger to the government; a charge that Rwanda denied. After South Africa arrested five men over the shooting and revealed their nationalities, Rwanda summoned the South African ambassador to express concern about the investigation. However, South Africa denied the recall was in "making any connections between the government of Rwanda and the shooting of the general."

Opposition parties also said more than 3 newspapers had been banned. Amnesty International also said opposition party figures had been intimidated, journalists had been targeted and killed, and several senior officers critical of the ruling party attacked and arrested. Foreign Minister, Louise Mushikiwabo, refuted the claims saying, "The international media and human rights groups are misrepresenting what is happening in the country. “My government does not stand to gain from any actions of insecurity. Paul Kagame happens to be a very popular candidate. I think to point a finger at this government is wrong. Anyone who is reading the situation from Rwanda would know that there is an atmosphere of excitement among the public."

Reports from various polling stations and international observers indicated that voters had cast their ballot way before the polls closed and that the entire process was peaceful. Anil K Gayan, a former foreign minister of Mauritius and the head of the AU monitoring delegation, said, "We have not received any evidence of intimidation." He also talked about the turnout for the elections saying that though political rallies may have been well attended "Crowds do not necessarily translate into votes." Kagame also refuted opposition claims and said the vote was "very democratic. The people of Rwanda were free to stand for election, those who wanted to, and to qualify, so I see no problem. "Some sections of the media seem to be reading from a different page."

Despite the likely emergence of a de facto one-party state in Rwanda following the large margin between him and other candidates, the president reportedly dislikes the sycophancy of some of his RPF disciples.

Now that he is re-elected, Mr Kagame will be only 59 when his second term ends in 2017. A true test of his sincerity as a democrat will be his willingness to surrender power, as the constitution demands. Meanwhile he will be a formidable if fearsome operator, at home and abroad.