Political Upheaval in Angola Ahead of 2012 Polls
Angola is due to hold its presidential and parliamentary elections next year, and all indications are that tensions are mounting amidst varied incidents of political upheaval ahead of the polls. Both the ruling People`s Movement for the Liberation of Angola - Labour Party (MPLA) and the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) are facing both friction and possible changes internally; while on the streets Angolans have been demonstrating with repeated fervor.
Lisa Otto, Intern, Africa Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Pretoria Office
Angola is due to hold presidential and parliamentary elections next year, and all indications are that tensions are mounting amidst varied incidents of political upheaval ahead of the polls. Both the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) and the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) are facing internal friction and possible leadership changes; while on the streets Angolans have been demonstrating with repeated fervor.
There are several points of contention that have sparked the recurrent demonstrations seen in Luanda since March this year. The major gripe is the excessive political power that resides in the presidency of Eduardo dos Santos that has resulted in poor levels of agency of the citizens of Angola by limiting their involvement in domestic political processes. Moreover, many Angolans decry their economic and political marginalisation, which has become evident in the low level of socio-economic development. This should be improved through the redistribution of the large-scale accumulation of oil wealth. Despite the strong economic growth that has taken place on the back of the oil industry, Angola still has some of the worst socio-economic indicators in Sub-Saharan Africa. This has resulted in widespread discontentment, particularly from the youth faced with scant occasion to escape their poor living conditions. Many young people across Angola feel discontented by the three-decade long rule of Dos Santos and the monopolisation of power by his party, as well as the political patronage and mismanagement of state funds derived from oil, which leaves them with little opportunities for education and employment.
As a result, the youth have voiced their concerns through the spate of protest marches that have taken place this year. The first of these occurred on 7 March, having been organised on Facebook, garnered global media interest and prompted the government to take a heavy-handed approach. Most of those in attendance were arrested, charged and put on trial with outcomes that appeared pre-determined. Nonetheless, these rulings were last week overturned, representing a victory for the protestors.
The initial protest has been followed by a flurry of further protests that have taken place in April, May, August and September of 2011. The MPLA government responded with yet more force, as well as using bribery as a tactic to dissuade young demonstrators and has changed the laws regarding demonstrations, which will limit the reach of such demonstrations dramatically. While the MPLA blame UNITA for the protests, the country’s youth are reported to be anti-government, but have protested around a variety of issues, including the dubious and unconstitutional amendments of electoral law in the run-up to the 2012 elections. Some Angolan actors view these developments as a watershed for the country’s politics, saying that the youth offer a beacon of hope for the country’s future as they have managed to spur concerns regarding the ruling MPLA’s grip on power.
What’s more, the opposition in Angola is severely underrepresented in local political platforms and processes, being either suppressed by the ruling MPLA, or being firmly in their back pocket. Yet, instead of being boosted in support on account of the political upheaval, UNITA is faced with internal battles surrounding the leadership of the party. There have been calls for the resignation of UNITA president Isaias Samakuva, with the party having been embroiled in an internal dispute in July that saw its head accused of trying to prolong his leadership. A leadership congress will now be held in mid-December, which may bring forth a change in the dynamics of the opposition politics in pre-election Angola.
UNITA is, however, not the only actor contending with succession pressures. President dos Santos has announced his successor to be Sonangol chief Manuel Vicente due to, it is speculated, the aforementioned demonstrations as well as internal debates surrounding succession in the party. Commentators suspect that this move is Dos Santos testing the waters and appeasing unhappy factions, yet doubt remains as to how certain succession will be and whether Vicente will thus be presented as the presidential candidate. This would be unlikely as the President will not concede to relinquish his position unless absolutely necessary, and would want an ally to follow him. Nonetheless, if social discontentment and political pressure continue to rise in the country ahead of the 2012 elections, Dos Santos may indeed be forced to step down.
In spite of the many decades that Angola has enjoyed independence, the country has not yet been metamorphosed into that which was envisioned for the country at its birth. With the country being notoriously underdeveloped, without the liberty of the citizens to engage in political processes, it is clear that a close eye will need to be kept on developments in Angola in the coming months. While, in all likelihood, Dos Santos will emerge victorious from the next set of elections, opposition parties will need to try to consolidate in order to stand a better chance of electoral success. The lead-up to the polls will be a crucial period in light of the rising public disgruntlement and political upheaval.
