Missing Targets: Kenya`s Vision 2030 a Mirage
Plans to transform Kenya into an industrialised, middle-income country in two decades may not be achieved after all. This is the conclusion of a group of economists who claim that the policy paper Vision 2030 needs to be thoroughly reviewed in line with the changes in risk profiles.
Abeba B. Amene, Outreach Officer- MIFUGO Project, ISS Nairobi Office
Plans to transform Kenya into an industrialised, middle-income country in two decades may not be achieved after all. This is the conclusion of a group of economists who claim that the policy paper Vision 2030 needs to be thoroughly reviewed in line with the changes in risk profiles.
Kenya’s development policy, Vision 2030, launched in 2006, is anchored on three pillars - economic, social and political – and seeks to make Kenya a globally competitive country by registering an annual growth rate of more than 10 percent and sustaining it to the year 2030. Moreover, it seeks to create a just, cohesive and equitable social development in a clean and secure environment under an issue-based, people-centred, result-oriented and accountable democratic system.
A report by the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) asserts that since the time the long-term economic development strategy was initiated, a number of issues, which can materially affect the realisation of the vision, have occurred. Among the concerns that need to be factored in are the post-election violence, the formation of a grand coalition government and the spill over effects of the world economic crisis. These issues have had a major impact on the country’s anticipated economic trends, social equity and governance.
The government of Kenya is also aware that the road towards this vision is now increasingly bumpy. An audit of the progress by the Ministry of Planning shows that there are numerous challenges that are slowing the process. According to Planning Minister, Ho Wycliffe Oparanya, the country’s economy had initially been projected to grow by 6 percent in the 2008/2009 financial year, but only registered a 2.5 percent growth.
That Kenya is in the midst of a challenging period is an understatement. The grand coalition government formed after the disputed December 2007 elections is now seeking to simultaneously undertake various processes including - hold accountable those responsible for the violence, deliver a promised constitutional reform and advance on the broad goals of promoting pro-poor growth and improving public services. None of these processes come cheap financially and politically.
The country is still reeling from the effects of the post election violence that almost brought the nation to its knees. The sectors adversely affected were tourism and agriculture. Effects of loss of revenue as well as missed production targets is still being felt three years on, in the form of food insecurity, high unemployment, etc. It is clear that the development strategy paper did not provide for such risks and was conceptualized with pre - 2006 economic indicators in mind.
Furthermore, Vision 2030 did not anticipate the formation of a grand coalition government. Instead of a lean government, Kenyans were saddled with a negotiated government that was anything but lean. Besides it being quite an expensive venture, squabbles within the government inevitably means that there is little coherence in government policies adversely affecting the realization of Vision 2030 objectives. There is a myriad of examples on different factions of the government pulling in opposite directions on any one particular issue. It is also well documented that a directive from one of the principals made on one day is overturned by the other principal on the following day. Clearly, Vision 2030 requires some cohesive political climate and consensus if any of its targets are to be met.
The constitutional reform process that many argue has been in the making for two decades is also another expensive exercise that was not included in the economic development strategy. As things stand now, it is estimated that the costs of the campaigns towards the referendum is in billions of Kenyan shillings of taxpayers’ money. This is amount is in addition to costs related to expenses by the Committee of Experts overseeing the constitutional reform process as well as civic education.
Climatic shocks in the form of floods as well as extended drought periods have further posed challenges to the provision of basic services. That these droughts are being experienced in areas host to vulnerable communities such as pastoralists just aggravates an already bad situation.
For the country to achieve some of the milestones set, political sacrifices will have to be made by those in power, particularly being more accountable to the tax payer, addressing the dragon of corruption and misappropriation of public funds. A leaner cabinet would also save the exchequer much needed finances for development especially infrastructure across the country in view to achieving Vision 2030.
It is important to borrow a leaf from the popular saying that the electorate gets the leadership they deserve. Perhaps this could offer a turning point if the ballot power was used positively to identify a leadership with national interests as opposed to some of the self-seeking politicians who have been involved in one scandal after another while paying little or no attention to the provisions in Vision 2030.
The electorate also needs to be more proactive in decision making as opposed to being driven by populist theories that often come laced with insincere ethnic overtones. Indeed, the electorate have a duty to hold their leaders accountable not only to achieve Vision 2030 but also in view of getting a fare share of tax and revenue collected by government to reduce poverty, improve health, education and human security.
Consequently, inability to meet set targets contained in the Vision 2030 invariably means even the remote attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s) becomes a herculean task. In light of this, it is clear that Kenya’s economic experts need to urgently review the development strategy paper by taking into account the challenges to its implementation and define a clearer road map that is alive to the economic, social and political realities of today’s Kenya while paying attention to immediate concerns that affect the majority.
