Malawi`s Presidential Election: Too Close to Call
Today Malawians go to the polls to vote in parliamentary and presidential elections for the fourth time since the restoration of multiparty democracy in the country in 1994.
Today Malawians go to the polls to vote in parliamentary and
presidential elections for the fourth time since the restoration of
multiparty democracy in the country in 1994. The run-up to the elections
has been dominated by the successful legal campaign backed by the
incumbent, President Bingu wa Mutharika, to bar his predecessor and
sometime patron, Bakuli Muluzi, from the contest. The courts have ruled
that Muluzi, who was president from 1994 to 2004, has served the two
terms allowed him under the constitution, and has rejected his
interpretation of the law as prohibiting more than two consecutive
terms. To add insult to injury, Muluzi also faces corruption charges
dating back to 2006.
By way of revenging himself upon a protégé who quickly proved both
ungrateful and vindictive after being promoted from relative political
obscurity to the leadership of the United Democratic Front (UDF) when
Muluzi stepped down, he has called on his supporters to cast their votes
for John Tembo, leader of the Malawi Congress Party (MCP). Whether they
will follow instructions is another matter, however, and the UDF will
still field its own candidates for the parliamentary elections.
Mutharika’s parliamentary fortunes rest with the Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP), which he formed around those UDF MPs who
crossed the floor to provide him with a personal support base when he
abandoned the UDF after an acrimonious intra-party conflict in May 2005.
The level of uncertainty about the parliamentary contest is
particularly high because the DDP is still untested in a general
election. A great deal thus depends on how electoral support for
Mutharika translates into party loyalty.
That the incumbent has performed well in the eyes of many Malawians
is not in doubt. His careful stewardship has seen this landlocked and
agriculture-dominated country achieve remarkable growth rates over the
last few years, and the perennial threat of famine has receded for many
of the rural poor following the success of his controversial fertiliser
subsidy scheme. Poverty remains pervasive, however, and economic
diversification is only now beginning, with the opening of the country’s
first uranium mine. A dependence on agriculture also makes Malawi
heavily dependent on the vagaries both of the weather and of global
markets. Nonetheless, Mutharika’s administration can boast of its role
in promoting considerable macro-economic success.
Some Malawians, however, are upset by what they see as the
President’s manipulation of legal and administrative process to sideline
or otherwise harm his opponents. Lacking a working parliamentary
majority has also led him to by-pass the legislature a great deal of the
time. The likelihood of a hung parliament following this election will
see a continuation of troubles for whoever wins the presidency.
Much of Malawi’s multi-party politics is fought out on a regional
level, with John Tembo and his MCP dominating the agriculturally rich
Central Province. Historically, the MCP is identified with the
authoritarian rule of the country’s founding father Kamuzu Banda, now
rehabilitated in death, but earlier reviled by his democratic opponents,
many of whom either went into exile or prison during his 30-year reign.
John Tembo is remembered less fondly by many as Banda’s principal
lieutenant, and was charged in 1995 with the murder of four political
opponents, who had been “accidentalised” in 1983. Though Tembo and his
co-accused were acquitted by the court, public opinion has reserved
judgment. Nor is Tembo’s conversion to democratic principles altogether
convincing. He was a staunch supporter of single-party rule right up to
the constitutional reforms that brought it to an end, and his political
career since has been dominated by the undiminished obsession of
becoming head of state, even though he is now 77 years old.
In an effort to broaden his election chances, Tembo has selected
Brown Mpinganjira, a southerner formerly prominent in the UDF,as his
running mate. Whether this gambit, or the formation of an electoral pact
with the UDF will prove enough we shall know only in a few days time.
The last opinion polls suggest a very close race.
Voter turn-out will also be very interesting, because many Malawians
are already deeply cynical about the political class, which no sooner
finishes one set of elections than it seems to be positioning itself for
the next. The importance of policy issues appears to be forgotten in
the rush for position and privilege, and the luxurious appointment of
the new Malawian parliament building stands in stark contrast to the
relative poverty of most of the general population. Unless some kind of
break can be achieved with the materialist culture of the democratic
process, Malawi will have far less to show for fifteen years of
multipartyism than should have been the case.
Richard Cornwell
