In Zambia The Succession Battle Has Already Begun
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19 July 2008: In Zambia The Succession Battle Has Already Begun
Amid conflicting reports regarding the status of Zambian president Levy Mwanawasa’s health, the question has arisen about the political implications of the incumbent possibly being determined unfit to continue his term in office.
On the eve of the African Union summit in Egypt, Mwanawasa suffered a stroke and was admitted to a private hospital on 29 June. He was later flown to a hospital in Paris, from where reports emerged that he had passed away. These reports were denied by Zambia’s Information Minister, Mike Mulongoti. Notwithstanding these contradictory statements, long-standing concerns over Mwanawasa’s health – he had already suffered a minor stroke prior to the 2006 elections – may render him incapable of remaining in office until the end of his term in 2011.
What are the implications of Mwanawasa’s health problems for Zambian and Southern African politics? What would happen if the presidency becomes vacant? And who are the likely candidates to succeed Mwanawasa?
The Regional Implications
As the Chair of the Southern African Development Community (SADC), Mwanawasa has been very vocal about developments in neighbouring Zimbabwe, likening the crisis to the sinking of the Titanic. All eyes will therefore be on whoever takes the reigns in the country.
United Party for National Development (UPND) opposition leader Haikande Hichilema, for example, has been quoted as agreeing with Mwanawasa’s stance on Zimbabwe.
The National Implications of Mwanawasa Stepping Down
According to Article 38 of the 1996 Zambian constitution, should a serving president die in office or become incapacitated, “an election to the office of President shall be held in accordance with Article 34 within ninety days from the date of the office becoming vacant”.
Despite having to leave office at the end of his second term in 2011, Mwanawasa has not made any provisions for a successor. Succession battles were therefore raging within the MMD even before the recent developments. These became most visible with the announcement of the candidacy of the First Lady, Maureen Kakubo Mwanawasa for president. Lameck Mangani, former Eastern Province executive of the MMD’s National Executive Committee, had openly rejected her candidacy. Manganiis believed to be endorsed by the current Vice-President, Rupiah Bwezani Banda, who is considered to have secretly worked towards securing the presidency. As early as February 2008, four other ministers voiced their interest in vying for the top position: Mike Mulongoti (Information), Ronnie Shikapwasha (Home Affairs), Ngandu Magande (Finance) and Dr Brian Chituwo (Health). At the time, Mwanawasa threatened that ministers who focussed on campaigning and not on their duties faced dismissal.
In order to avoid internal rifts within the part, compromise candidates have also been proposed, such as Willa Mun’gomba, former African Development Bank President (1980-85). Despite impeccable credentials, Mun’gomba lacks grassroots connections. He does, however, enjoy the backing of civil society and religious groups because of his lead in drafting the Constitutional Review Commission currently under review by a national conference.
Two other possible compromise candidates are Stanley Bwalya Chiti, a businessman and former member of parliament, and Sebastian Kopulande, one of Mwanawasa’s former advisors.
With the prospects of Mwanawasa not returning to office, the key contenders will increase their efforts to take the pole position.
As for the main opposition party, Michael Sata has been one of Mwanawasa’s key opponents. Sata used health concerns surrounding the incumbent president as campaign propaganda during the 2006 elections. Sata had himself suffered a heart attack earlier this year, and the ill health of this charismatic leader of the Patriotic Front (PF) threatens to destroy the party. Further exacerbating the PF’s troubles is former president Chiluba, who joined the PF in 2006 and has begun to cause intra-party dissension.
The alternative opposition UPND is equally divided. Whereas one group within the party wants to join forces with the MMD, party leader Hichilema opposes this move.
Thus, on all sides of the political divide, observers expect bickering among the possible contenders for the presidency. All political parties remain fragmented, impeding their potential to benefit from the others’ internal troubles.
Despite these political battles, there are as yet no indications of an impending crisis. Zambia remains a beacon of stability and peace, with all relevant actors continuing to respect the democratic constitution. However, given the extent of the power invested in the President, if and when Mwanawasa’s successor is elected, he will play a key role in ensuring Zambia’s stability. Conversely, he or she could just as easily destabilise the country.
The Implications for the Constitutional Review Process
The drafting and adoption of a new constitution has been a source of tension between the government, the opposition and civil society groups since 2003. The current constitution awards a great deal of power to the president and lays down an electoral system that favours the incumbent. Prior to the 2006 elections, Mwanawasa effectively sidetracked demands for constitutional revision. One particular constitutional amendment was considered a key bone of contention: the condition that an absolute majority (50%-plus-one system) was required to win the elections, as opposed to the existing rule whereby a single majority could secure the presidency. Mwanawasa, who had won the previous election with only 29% of the total vote cast, was keen to avoid a situation that may have put him at a disadvantage. He was expected to be more willing to implement reforms now that he would no longer compete in future elections. An incoming president may be less willing to make such concessions, thus further prolonging the review process.
Judy Smith-Höhn, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
