Happy Birthday President Mugabe!
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25 February 2008: Happy Birthday President Mugabe!
Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe, who has been in office since that country gained its independence from Britain in 1980, turned 84 last week. As he blew out the numerous candles on his birthday cake one can only imagine that at the top of his birthday wish list was that of another decisive victory over his rival candidates at the polls on 29 March 2008. This historic General Election will see presidential, parliamentary, senate and council elections being held simultaneously for the first time.
In the mist of all the celebrations surrounding President Mugabe’s birthday, the Zimbabwean government’s Central Statistical Office (CSO) provided the aging president with an unwanted birthday present by announcing that calculations of January’s annual rate of inflation, showed that this country’s inflation had risen to a staggering 100 580.2 percent. According to the CSO, the latest annual inflation figure represents a huge 34 367.9 percent jump on the December rate, which was calculated at 66 212.3 percent.
On a more positive note, this meteoric rise seen in the annual rate of inflation has been moderated by month-on-month inflation figures, which the CSO happily declared had dropped by 119.3 percentage points. This drop in the monthly inflation rate is calculated by comparing the January rate, which was 120.8 percent, and the December rate of 131.4 percent. The merrymakers at the CSO also point out that the month-on-month inflation rate must top 50 percent for three consecutive months before it can be called hyperinflation. Zimbabwe's month-on-month rate has topped 100 per cent every month since October last year.
Joining the festivities are humanitarian organisations who point out that 80 percent of Zimbabweans live below the poverty datum line. To illustrate the point, it’s worth noting that last week the cost of bread (not cake) in Zimbabwe shot up from Z$2.5 million per loaf to Z$4.5 million. Some civil servants receive salaries of just Z$34 million a month.
With inflation out of control, spiralling unemployment, and chronic shortages of food and fuel, one would expect that conditions would be ripe for a revolt against Mugabe, which would culminate in a crushing defeat in the upcoming polls. In all likelihood, however, President Mugabe will in fact see his birthday wish for another five-year term in office coming true.
The fairy godmother granting Zimbabwe’s veteran head of state the possibility of completing a three decade stay in office is this country’s opposition. Torn apart by divisions over strategy and leadership, they have lost any real opportunity to make good political mileage of Zimbabwe's economic crisis.
Although the emergence of former Finance Minister Simba Makoni as a presidential candidate indicates that the President can anticipate mounting challenges from within his own political party, Mugabe still remains adept at outmanoeuvring challengers from the opposition, civil society and from within his ruling ZANU-PF party. Even though the real threat to President Mugabe’s election campaign will come from divisions within ZANU-PF and the deepening economic collapse, both of these factors are unlikely to prevent Mugabe's birthday wish from coming true. Short of a miracle it seems at this point that this is indeed a very happy birthday for President Mugabe.
Chris Maroleng, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
