Change or Continuity? South Africa's 2011 Municipal Elections
An analysis of the voter turnout in the 2011 municipal elections in South Africa provides an insight into voter trends in the country.
Collette Schulz-Herzenberg, Senior Researcher, Corruption and Governance Programme, ISS Cape Town Office
At first glance the results of South Africa's recent municipal elections appear predictable. The incumbent African National Congress (ANC) won an overwhelming share of the votes with numerous opposition parties sharing the rest of the pie. Yet, a closer assessment of the major trends in electoral participation as well as election results suggest otherwise.
This election witnessed a record number of voters registered with the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) at 23, 654 578 - a 2% increase from the 2009 national and provincial elections.
Registration can also be understood as a proportion of the overall eligible voting age population (VAP) - citizens over 18 years who are eligible to vote. When we examine registration figures for the 2011 municipal elections, based on STATS-SA 2010 population estimates, it appears that 75% of the eligible voting population was registered to vote in the 2011 elections.
If the same calculations are done for the two previous local elections held in South Africa in 2006 and 2000, the latest 2011 election shows an encouraging increase in the proportion of eligible voters who are registered from 69.8% in 2000, to 72.4% in 2006 and rising again to 75.3% in 2011(as illustrated in the blue line in the graph). However, the same calculation also suggests that roughly 25%, or a quarter of the entire eligible electorate is not voting. In other words, there are a significant number of eligible voters who are not for some or other reason registering to cast a vote at election time.
Ensuring healthy public participation at the polls is one of the greatest challenges facing democracies worldwide. Over the past 17 years South Africa has had consistently higher voter turnout at national and provincial elections, compared to local elections, with 85.80% in 1994, declining to 77.3% in 2009. Turnout for local elections were much lower at 48.06% in 2000 and in 2006.
Yet, the 2011 municipal elections broke this trend with an impressive 57.6% turnout of all registered voters - a 9% increase compared to two previous municipal elections (see red line in graph). Moreover, turnout increased across all nine provinces in the 2011 election compared with the 2006 local elections.
The disparity in turnout results between national and local elections is consistent with many other democracies, with electorates generally favoring national and provincial elections over municipal or local elections. In South Africa however, there are other reasons that explain a generally low turnout at local elections. The first is the unusually low level of citizen trust in local government institutions, political parties and party leaders, established by public opinion surveys over the years. More recently, both the Comparative National Elections Project 2009 (CNEP) national survey and the IEC/HSRC 2010 survey found trust in these three institutions to be the lowest of all political institutions in South Africa.
Another factor that may explain low turnout at local elections are the high levels of frustration and dissatisfaction with service delivery failures at the local level. Frustration with local government had led to numerous country-wide protests in the months preceding the election, raising expectations that voters might employ a stay-away tactic as a way to punish the incumbent party. In fact, on the day of the 2011 municipal elections, the IEC tentatively predicted only a small increase in turnout at the polls of 50%, a 2% increase on previous local elections.
Yet, turnout increased by 9%. It may be that service delivery protests and general frustration have had an energizing effect in disgruntled communities - many of which traditionally support the governing party. A quick analysis of turnout and results in two prominent 'hotspots' - or areas that have experienced recent protests - Ficksburg in the Free State and Ermelo in Mpumalanaga - show that turnout in these municipalities is higher compared to 2006 and that the incumbent ANC party remain in power.
While two case studies hardly constitute conclusive evidence it does suggest that heightened dissatisfaction prior to elections does not necessarily produce apathy, a withdrawal of active participation or a change in power as conventional wisdom assumes.
So why the increase? Did a season of protest energize voters? More research is required to better understand the role of 'protest politics' in a pre-election period. However the higher turnout in disgruntled areas does suggests that voters used the months preceding the election as leverage to attract government's attention and make their demands known. Once accomplished, people then return to the polls to vote for a party.
Another factor that helps to explain the rise in turnout is the high level of public interest in this election, due largely to strident nationally focused party campaigns of the largest parties. The IEC/HSRC survey, polled before the election, found high levels of interest in this election at 74%. An Ipsos Markinor survey fielded in April/May 2011 found that intentions to participate were high - 76% stated they were likely to vote.
A third crucial factor that affected turnout positively was the continuation of a trend that emerges in the 2009 national and provincial elections which witnessed a re-energised opposition bloc whose supporters return to the polls. In previous elections the size of the opposition bloc vote had contracted from 32% of the electorate in 1994 to 17% in 2004. However, it rises again to 20% in the 2009 national elections. The 3% net increase in 2009 broke the overall downward trend for opposition parties and amounts to a slight but renewed interest in and support for certain opposition parties, namely the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Congress of the People (Cope).
This development was accompanied by a realignment that took place within the opposition bloc at the 2009 election, and which continues at the 2011 municipal election, where opposition supporters favour the bigger opposition parties over the smaller ones, which, as a consequence, suffer significant losses.
The increase in opposition activity coupled with the realignment towards bigger opposition parties' resulted in the increased turnout among opposition supporters. This was a deciding factor for the ANC vote share in the past two elections, denying the incumbents a two-thirds majority in 2009 and suppressing the party's vote share once again in the 2011 election.
The higher than expected turnout is encouraging. Voter dissatisfaction with service delivery and low levels of trust in political parties do not necessarily detract from participatory politics. It also suggests that the South African electorate is not overly apathetic about local politics. A higher than usual turnout also bestows legitimacy on local institutions, which is crucial for the further consolidation of this important sphere of government, and for democracy itself.
