May 2014: What the data says about election prospects in South Africa

In a media briefing on Tuesday 6 May, Lizette Lancaster and Judith February spoke about corruption, violence and intimidation ahead of SA elections.

Pretoria, South Africa – The South African elections of 7 May 2014 are rightly considered the end of the old and the start of the new. But what will motivate voters to choose one party over another when the time comes?

At a seminar in Pretoria tomorrow, the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) will draw on in-depth research to look at the prospects for not only the 2014 elections, but also possible trends for those taking place in 2019, 2024 and 2029.

With one month of electioneering left, political parties are competing for the elusive youth vote. Although the African National Congress (ANC) is expected to again win with a handsome majority, the Economic Freedom Fighters is positioning itself as a new force to be reckoned with.

University of Cape Town academic Dr Collette Schulz-Herzenberg will explore the trends in political participation of South Africa’s 20 years of democracy, looking specifically at voter registration, voter turnout and party performance. She will also discuss the likelihood of ANC supporters withholding their votes given recent controversy surrounding President Jacob Zuma.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director of the ISS, will draw on his recent ISS paper South African futures 2030: how Bafana Bafana made Mandela Magic, to assess voter trends in future elections. He will consider the long-term electoral implications of changes in ANC leadership, the impact of developments within the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), and the ability of opposition parties to mobilise young black voters. Cilliers’ latest policy brief Forecasting South African election results will be available at the seminar.

This seminar will be webcast live from 10h30. Visit the ISS homepage tomorrow for the link: www.issafrica.org

For media interviews and further information contact:

• Dr Collette Schultz-Herzenberg, independent researcher, +27 83 564 9567, [email protected]
• Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, ISS, +27 12 346 9500, [email protected]

The seminar is funded by the Hanns Seidel Foundation