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Malaria no more: Expectations for eradication
30 November 2012


This policy brief explores the possible impact should Africa eliminate malarial infection by 2025. Between 2015 and 2050, when comparing the International Futures Base Case with a Malaria Eradication scenario (explained in the brief), the continent could experience the following benefits:

Eliminate 12 million deaths from malaria, with the greatest absolute reduction in Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

Add more than 50 million years of healthy life

Increase overall economic output - by nearly US$ 430 billion largely due to increases in production

Increase per capita income for Africans by more than US$ 30 per person in 2050 Prevent nearly 2,5 million people from living on less than US$ 1,25 per day in 2050.

About the African Futures project:

The African Futures Project is a collaboration between the Institute for Security Studies and the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver. These organizations leverage each others’ expertise to provide forward-looking, policy-relevant material that frames uncertainty around human development in Africa.

For more information on the African Futures project visit

Project funding thanks to the Hanns Seidel Foundation, Government of Canada, Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade; Frederick S. Pardee; the governments of Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland; and the Open Society Foundation.