Guinea’s high-stakes referendum on the road to constitutional order

Despite overwhelming support for the new constitution, the prospects for legitimate elections and stability remain uncertain.

Published on 25 September 2025 in ISS Today

By

Aïssatou Kanté
Researcher, Littoral West African States, ISS Regional office for West Africa and the Sahel

Provisional results show that on 21 September, nearly six million Guineans headed to the polls to decide whether or not to adopt the country’s new constitution. The referendum is instrumental for normalising political life and reversing the crisis of confidence among authorities, politicians and civil society.

It is also a prerequisite for holding presidential and legislative elections to end the transition after the 2021 military coup in which Alpha Condé’s regime was overthrown. Condé’s authority was contested after the adoption of a 2020 constitution that allowed him to run for a third term. However, delays and a lack of clarity in the transition timetable have heightened citizens’ concerns, fuelling the idea of a unilateral rather than participative transition.

In Sunday’s referendum, 89.38% of voters supported the new constitution, which is the product of a series of consultations and symposiums. It introduces major changes to fundamental principles, rights and the country’s political system and institutions.

Some politicians believe these ambitious changes are disconnected from a truly inclusive process, undermining the reforms' legitimacy. For example, the new constitution gives all citizens the right of petition, allowing issues that have garnered a requisite number of signatures to be placed on the agenda of a parliamentary plenary session.

For some politicians, the ambitious constitutional changes are disconnected from a truly inclusive process

When the president submits a proposed constitutional revision to Parliament, citizens registered on the voters’ roll have 30 days to contest the text through a petition. They also now have the right to petition Parliament to impeach the president for high treason.

To address uneven development across the country’s regions, the new constitution provides for the creation of a National Development Commission. Members of the commission will be drawn from the private and public sectors, civil society and academia. They will help draft national and regional development strategies in fields such as resource management, land issues, local governance and equal opportunities.

The commission can be seen as a key mechanism to ensure citizen participation in governance. This goal also underpins the new provision allowing independent candidates to run in general elections. Ensuring citizen involvement in governance is vital considering Guineans’ enduring desire for democracy.

At the institutional level, the new constitution maintains a dual executive consisting of the president and prime minister. At the same time, it attempts to streamline presidential powers by strengthening those of the prime minister, who is responsible for national policy making under the president’s authority.

The new constitution also rationalises the president’s power by introducing bicameralism, with the creation of a Senate alongside the National Assembly. The Senate issues opinions on senior civil service appointments, limiting the president’s role in that process. In theory, the Senate should also ensure better representation of Guinea’s regions in decision-making bodies and fairer redistribution of resources.

Some called for a referendum boycott, saying the draft constitution legitimised the regime’s leadership

On the judicial front, the new constitution provides a Constitutional Court that authorised associations can ask to overturn unconstitutional laws. A Special Court of Justice of the Republic will also be created, based on a system of holding the government criminally liable.

Despite these innovations – which could help set Guinea on the path to stability – the referendum has been contested, with members of the political class and civil society calling for its boycott in early September. They believed the draft served more to legitimise the ruling regime’s continued leadership than improve governance.

These views were fuelled by the ban on political or civic demonstrations since May 2022 along with kidnappings and disappearances of those who criticised the authorities. Other factors are a shrinking media space and the recent suspension of major political parties such as the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea and Rally of the Guinean People.

Added to this is the perception that General Mamady Doumbouya, who led the 2021 coup and is now transitional president, will run for president when elections are held. Support for Doumbouya has grown in recent months despite his promise not to compete.

Moreover, there is disagreement between authorities and some political and civil society actors regarding the management of elections. The decision to entrust the process to a government body – the Ministry of Territorial Administration and Decentralisation – raises fears of electoral fraud.

Guinea needs sincere dialogue to overcome disagreements and enable transparent and credible polls

Overall, this situation heightens the risk of challenges to the legitimacy of elections to end Guinea’s transition, and the chances of political and social unrest.

Electoral crises have historically been a source of instability in Guinea. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), African Union (AU), United Nations and bilateral partners should coordinate their efforts ahead of the presidential and legislative polls, to help break the cycle of electoral violence.

Based on lessons from previous elections, they should encourage sincere dialogue aimed at overcoming disagreements, reopening the democratic space, and enabling transparent and credible polls.

This must be accompanied by increased support for civil society organisations that can raise awareness, as well as early warning and citizen observation missions during voting. This is essential in a context of weakening civic space, which encourages disinformation that can exacerbate divisions and socio-political tensions.

The 2021 coup occurred in a context of widespread rejection of past abuses. The success of the transition will depend less on elections than on inclusive structural reforms that lay the foundation for lasting stability. ECOWAS and the AU must ensure the elected government is bound by the structural reforms initiated during the transitional period.


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