Updated forecasts: impact of COVID-19 in Africa


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COVID-19 is set to undo several years of development progress in Africa. In a best case scenario, GDP per capita will recover to 2019 levels in 2024. In a worst case, Africa will only return to 2019 levels in 2030. Compared to the pre-COVID-19 forecast, Africa’s economy will be between US$349 billion and US$643 billion smaller in 2030.

The updated report Impact of COVID-19 in Africa: A scenario analysis to 2030 compares the impact on Africa with a pre-COVID trajectory and examines the effects on poverty, average incomes and economic growth. The study concludes with guidance on how to reduce vulnerability and strengthen Africa’s resilience.

This is a joint event of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) and Frederick S Pardee Centre for International Futures.

Chair: Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Head, Special Projects, ISS


Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head, African Futures & Innovation, ISS

Panellists from the Gordon Institute for Business Science and the Frederick S Pardee Centre for International Futures

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