29 Mar 2007: ISS Today: DRC: Replace War Spirit with Reconciliation, Urges EU

29 March 2007: DRC: Replace War Spirit with Reconciliation, Urges EU
Reliefweb

The recent violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was irresponsible and should be replaced with a spirit of reconciliation and inclusiveness to ensure stability in the fragile country, said European Union envoys. Addressing a news conference in the capital, Kinshasa, on Tuesday, they expressed indignation at the violence that rocked the city on 22-25 March, and condemned the loss of life, especially of civilians.

"There remains a war spirit in the country, which is a bit like malaria," the UK ambassador, Andy Sparkes, said. "We thought we had healed the country with a big dose of quinine, with the holding of free and transparent elections last year, but this war spirit has returned." The violence erupted when armed forces clashed with the private guards of opposition leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba. The army had sought to disarm Bemba`s troops.

Greek ambassador Ioannis Christofilis said attacks on foreign missions broke the Vienna convention on diplomatic relations, while the Italian ambassador Leonardo Baroncelli said uniformed men broke into his residence on 23 March and stole property. "There needs to be a new spirit of reconciliation with a real engagement of the authorities for democratic opposition, where the liberty of expression is reaffirmed," said Sparkes. "Violence needs to be denounced so that dialogue can continue." The EU estimates that more than 500 people could have died in the violence. DRC authorities later issued an arrest warrant for Bemba who sought shelter in the South African embassy.

Commentary

The Secretary General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon has urged the government and opposition in the DRC "to shoulder their responsibilities to democracy" to ensure a full transition to peace. "I strongly urge the political leaders in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to respect the principles of transparency, inclusiveness and tolerance of dissent," he said in a report that called for an extension to 31 December of the UN Mission in DRC (MONUC). The question now is how to repair the political damage that has been done in Kinshasa after the clashes between government forces and Bemba’s protection elements (DPP).

Both the leaders who have the most support in the west of the country, including the capital Kinshasa, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Etienne Tshisekedi, are now either criminalised or marginalised. The key to a return to stability is to address the issue of Bemba, currently under the protection of the South African embassy.

It is clear that Kabila’s camp achieved a complete military victory against an adversary considerably inferior in numbers, and who actually posed no serious threat to the President. Yet the price for such a "victory" may be extremely high. Officials in Bemba`s entourage have admitted that the leader of the opposition now has little choice but to go into exile, since they have no doubt that the Senate will remove his immunity from prosecution on the charges of high treason now levelled against him.

The question is now: where from here? Bemba`s Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC) MPs and supporters are now in a difficult situation, as their leader effectively is a fugitive. On the diplomatic front, South Africa finds itself in a unique position to assist in negotiating a settlement, however small the chances of success. In the past, South African officials have sought to defend their policy of `quiet diplomacy` over the Zimbabwe crisis by referring to their `success` in the DRC, an argument that will seem less convincing unless a solution can be found to Kinshasa’s current crisis.

Should Kabila press for Bemba’s apprehension and trial, South Africa’s relations with the DRC government could suffer if he continues to be given refuge in its embassy compound. A possible way out of the impasse would be for a mutual agreement for him to be allowed to go into exile in a third country.

There are now three possible scenarios, in all of which the position of South Africa is central.

The first is that South Africa hands over Bemba to the Congolese authorities. This is unlikely in the immediate future and, indeed, could precipitate serious unrest in Kinshasa and elsewhere in the west of the country, where Bemba enjoys widespread support.

The second is that Bemba goes into exile. This idea is becoming more and more a possibility. Bemba is naturally concerned for his personal safety following three incidents in which his residence and offices were attacked following the announcement of the first round of election results. The obvious conclusion Bemba has drawn from these incidents is that they reflect the government`s intention to neutralise any political opposition, an impression strengthened by the violent events subsequent to the flawed provincial elections in Bas-Congo. What sort of threat Bemba would continue to constitute from exile is open to conjecture, once the option of mounting legal opposition to the government has been closed off.

The third scenario is a compromise between Kabila and Bemba. The possibilities for this outcome appear bleak. President Kabila has already made it clear that in his view there is nothing to negotiate and that he will go after the people responsible for the violence in Kinshasa including Bemba. The international community, including South Africa, however, continues to use all possible leverage to press for a negotiated settlement.

The next few weeks will be crucial for the future of the DRC. If the Bemba issue and the Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintegration of combatants cannot be resolved we could see an escalation of violence in the DRC, as Deputy Minister Aziz Pahad has stated “it could open a ‘Pandora’s box’ if the fighting was allowed to continue and it would encourage others to also use force to achieve what they think they did not get through the peace process.” The whole situation is also an embarrassment for the international community at large. The clashes in Kinshasa are further evidence of failure of internationally-sponsored effort adequately to carry out the DDR process.

Henri Boshoff, Military Analyst, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)