22 Jun 2006: ISS Today: Burundi Rebels Agree Truce Plan
22 June 2006: Burundi rebels agree truce plan,
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Burundi’s government and the country’s last active rebel group have agreed to end hostilities and draft a permanent ceasefire deal in the next two weeks. But President Pierre Nkurunziza was only “half satisfied” with the deal, having hoped to sign a full ceasefire. Representatives of the government and the Hutu National Liberation Forces (FNL) rebels met in Tanzania on Sunday. Observers say a deal with the FNL is seen as one of the final hurdles for stability after the long civil war.
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Commentary
After three weeks of talks in Dar es Salaam, facilitated by the Tanzanian government and mediated by South Africa’s minister of safety and security, Charles Nqakula, an agreement has been reached between Agathon Rwasa’s FNL and the Burundian government, which should lead to a ceasefire and bring to an end thirteen years of civil conflict that has cost Burundi 300 000 lives and caused immense misery to its population.
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Burundi’s President Nkurunziza is disappointed that the agreement was one of principle, rather than the substantive commitment he had sought, but it is to be hoped that the next two weeks of discussions will see the remaining reservations of the FNL leadership overcome, and that the movement can take up its place as a recognised political party. One of the issues the FNL has previously flagged as crucial is that the newly formed army be reorganised to accommodate its own 2 000 or so soldiers. This is a sensitive matter, for it goes to the heart of the political process that led to the emergence of a presidency which seems determined to proceed along a path of reconciliation between Hutu and Tutsi.
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In order to achieve this end Nkurunziza’s followers had to recognise the fears of the hitherto dominant Tutsi minority by conceding a more prominent role in the reformed military than would have been justified by numbers alone. That the President has stuck to this path has involved considerable political risk, as has his close relationship with both Rwanda’s President Kagame and Burundian ex-president Bagaza.
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Boosted by a massive victory at the polls, however, Nkurunziza has slowly consolidated his control over the ruling party, marginalising some powerful hardliners in the process. His decision to enter into serious peace negotiations with the FNL has been a popular one, though not, perhaps, with certain elements within the military itself.
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Sceptics will say that we have seen all this before: that in May 2005 a similar pact was made, only to dissolve in mutual recrimination and charges of bad faith and violations of the ceasefire. But that was before Nkurunziza’s electoral victory which has made it increasingly difficult for the FNL leadership to justify their continued resort to arms.
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A prospective comprehensive peace in Burundi will also contribute to the consolidation of the political and economic recovery of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), for the FNL had counted among the “negative forces” operating in the east of that country, and had been accused of assisting Rwanda’s Hutu rebel movement there. If the FNL can be brought into the political mainstream, there will be no further excuse for Burundi to seek to intervene in Congolese affairs.
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President Kikwete of Tanzania has also worked hard towards this end, partly, no doubt, out of the wish that the 350,0001 Burundian refugees within his country’s borders can now return home. The ability of the Tanzanian and South African governments to collaborate in bringing about this latest development in the Burundian peace process must also not be overlooked. Quietly, and without fanfare, diplomatic progress has been made. The international community must now do its part by providing enough of a peace dividend to the Burundian people to render useless the efforts of potential spoilers.
Richard Cornwell
