19 Jan 2007: ISS Today: Uganda: Chissano Has a Daunting Task to Resuscitate the Juba Peace Talks
19 January 2007: Uganda: Chissano Has a Daunting Task to Resuscitate the Juba Peace Talks
When former Mozambique President Joaquim Chissano was appointed the UN envoy for Northern Uganda`s conflict there was optimism that he was the best person to rescue the Juba talks, which were interrupted last year when the Lord`s Resistance Army representatives walked out accusing the Ugandan People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) of violating the terms of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement signed in August 2006.
The choice of Chissano was hailed as excellent, timely and wise. It was timely in that the peace talks had stalled at a time when the chief mediator, Dr Riek Machar, was overwhelmed with his duties of vice-president for Southern Sudan, particularly dealing with escalating violence in Upper Nile and around Juba. Chissano also possesses impeccable credentials for the unenviable task he has been assigned—a respected African statesman who successfully negotiated the end of the activities of a group similar to the LRA and presided over implementation of a peace accord.
On arrival in Uganda on 11 January, Chissano embarked on a fact-finding and familiarisation tour. However, his efforts might be complicated by events during his trip to Uganda. On his way to Kampala he had met with the LRA representatives in Nairobi and received a document containing their new conditions for resuscitating the peace talks. He was later forced to confess that the meeting was accidental when the details of this meeting came to light. President Museveni on his part showered flowery accolades on Chissano when he paid him a courtesy call at his Rwakitura home.
If Chissano wants to succeed in his mission of ending the 20-year conflict, he must avoid being seen to be a favourite of one side. He may well be aware that one of the issues being used to question the impartiality of the ICC is the joint press conference that was held by President Museveni and the ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo,in London in January 2005 to announce the Court’s indictments of the LRA high command.
Chissano has a simple agenda—to evaluate the situation in the LRA-affected areas and find the best ways of facilitating the peace process. Although he has met government officials involved in the peace process as well as the South Sudan president Salva Kiir and his vice Riek Machar, the LRA military leadership has snubbed him. After waiting in Juba for three days, Chissano flew to Khartoum on January 17 to meet Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir. The LRA, second in command, Vincent Otti reportedly argued that his people had moved deep into Congo and could not make it to the Ri-Kwangba meeting point.
The talks, which were supposed to continue last week, seem to have ended last year when the LRA left the negotiating table claiming that the UPDF forces had violated the August 2006 truce by moving too close to the Owiny-ki-Bul, one of the designated assembly areas for LRA rebels. But the latest turn of events was triggered by statements of Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir who, while addressing a crowd in Juba to mark the second anniversary of the Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement, vowed to use force to oust the LRA rebels from Sudan if they are not interested in peace. He demanded that they should instead “go and rebel from their own country.”
In reaction to President Bashir’s threats, the LRA ordered its team out of Juba, which it declared hostile territory. The LRA rebels were also ordered to retreat to Garamba forest in the DRC and to Uganda. Although some of the LRA rebels had stayed in the country while others moved to Owiny-ki-Bul, this order has caused an alarm among the 1.7 million internally displaced people who have been experiencing relative peace and had pinned their hopes on the success of the Juba peace talks. The UPDF has threatened to “baptise the LRA rebels with fire” if they cross back into Uganda. The Uganda government has a genuine fear of the LRA resuming its destabilisation activities inside the country when it is preparing to host the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) and to dispatch its troops to make peace in Somalia.
Besides ordering their rebels to leave Southern Sudan, the LRA leadership has also demanded the peace talks be moved from Juba to either Kenya or South Africa and that the chief mediator, Riek Machar, be replaced. These developments have far-reaching implications for the peace talks. First, it means that the August 2006 truce has effectively been nullified. Second, the glimmer of hope that the truce has brought since August has flickered. Third, changing mediators at this point is like changing horses midstream. Fourth, it is ironical that the LRA wants the peace talks to be moved to the two countries that have signed and ratified the ICC Rome Statutes. Although neither the South African nor Kenyan governments have been formally approached, it is most unlikely that they will agree to host the talks as they may have to come up very special arrangements to accommodate Kony if ever a final agreement is reached.
Wafula Okumu, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)
