15 Nov 2007: ISS Today: Yet Another DRC-Rwanda Agreement on Rwandan Hutu Rebels

15 November 2007: Yet Another DRC-Rwanda Agreement on Rwandan Hutu Rebels

 

On 9 November the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (GoDRC) and Rwanda reached a deal whereby the GoDRC will forcibly disarm Rwandan Hutu rebels on its soil, in an effort to reduce tensions with its central African neighbour. The meeting was facilitated by the United Nations, in the presence of United States and the European Union.  

 

This announcement, made in a communiqué on 11 November 2007 in Nairobi, sounds very familiar. On the 30 July 2002 the South African Government facilitated a similar meeting between GoDRC and Rwanda, which resulted in the Pretoria agreement (also known as the 90-Day agreement). Within two weeks of the signing of the agreement, the Government of Rwanda withdraw the 20,000 Rwandan soldiers that was deployed in the East of the Democratic Republic of Congo, expecting the GoDRC to repatriate the 8,000 plus ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR and other rebel groups within 90 days. That did not happen, and the problem remains.

 

The obvious question is: why should the new agreement be any more successful? The communiqué by the Secretary General of the United Nations gives the misleading impression that this agreement will solve the problem of ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR combatants. “The agreement between them on a common approach and immediate, concrete steps to carry it out marks a significant breakthrough,” Mr Ban said through his spokesperson.  “This approach offers an opportunity for the comprehensive resolution of the fundamental problems posed by irregular armed groups in the eastern DRC,” added the spokesperson, referring to a region where some 800,000 people have been displaced by fighting.  It is however important to look closely at the agreement and what it means.

 

It is clear from the agreement that much of the responsibility lies with the government of the GoDRC, particularly with regard to the disarmament and repatriation of the ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR and other rebel combatants to Rwanda. The 30 July 2002 Pretoria agreement was very similar. The only difference was that Rwanda had the responsibility to withdraw 20,000 soldiers from the Eastern part of DRC in exchange for the repatriation of the rebels to Rwanda. The Rwandans kept its part of the agreement, of which South Africa stood as guarantor. The repatriation process stipulated by the Pretoria agreement, has, however, failed. The only ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR combatants who have been repatriated are those who did so on a voluntary basis through the UN Mission in DRC (MONUC).

 

The new agreement explicitly makes provision for the launching of military operations, as a matter of urgency, to dismantle the ex-FAR/Interahamwe as a genocidal military organization in the DRC. This is part of the agreement that seems unlikely to succeed, largely due to the lack of the lack of capacity of the DRC’s state military, the Forces Armées de la Républic Démocratique du Congo (FARDC).

 

During 2005 and 2006 the Eastern Division of MONUC conducted several operations to put pressure on the FDLR. This however only resulted in the ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR moving deeper into the interior. After then elections of 2006 the rebels returned to their old positions in North and South Kivu. The situation in the area remains volatile. Since January 2007 the FDLR-Mai Mai alliance in North Kivu, informally supported by the FARDC, has carried out attacks on General Nkunda’s RCD-Goma brigades. This has resulted in the mass displacement of civilians and human rights abuses.

 

What can be done about the ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR? The only realistic option is a combination of political negotiations run in parallel with military pressure by FARDC/MONUC, and the continuation of the current Demobilisation, Disarmament, Reintegration, Repatriation and Resettlement (DDRRR) program in which ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR combatants are encouraged to voluntarily return to Rwanda. Key to the successful return of these combatants is the opening of the political space in Rwanda. It is not, however, foreseen that this situation will change soon. Until such time the GoDRC and MONUC will have to deal with the ex-FAR/Interahamwe/FDLR through sensitising them to return to Rwanda.

 

Henri Boshoff, Military Analyst: African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)