11 Jan 2007: ISS Today: Sudan: Peace Implementation in the South Needs Impetus

11 January 2007: Sudan – Peace Implementation in the South Needs Impetus

When the new second Vice President of Sudan, Ali Osman Taha, spoke at the inauguration ceremony of the new Government of National Unity and the ‘homecoming’ of John Garang leader of the SPLA to Khartoum, he made the following observation:

“The people of Sudan who took to the streets congratulating, blessing, hailing and calling for more of such processions that covered the towns of Sudan was the strongest signal culminating in a historic gathering that brought forth no word but, I am sure was the strongest speech given in these celebrations. And when the people speak during such occasions, then the leaders have to keep silent and proceed to discharge their duties and accomplish their mission”

Since 2005, however, the tempo of political change has slowed and what seemed to be a vision for a new Sudan led by the ‘voice of the people’ is now dismissed as political sloganeering with no resonance at grassroots. The optimism around the CPA has diminished swiftly, as this was characterised dramatically by this weeks public ‘spat’ between President Omar El Bashir and Vice President and Head of the interim Government of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir. At a public rally to mark the second anniversary of the signing of the CPA, the two leaders exchanged sharply contrasting views on the implementation, each accusing the other’s ‘region’ for the failure to implement the key provisions of the peace deal.

With only five years in which to establish a functioning Southern Sudanese administration able to deliver on the high expectations of the thousands of war weary Southern Sudanese time is of the essence. And although the SPLM is likely to dominate the Southern political landscape for some time to come it is clear that the frustrations around the slow implementation of the CPA are having a negative impact on the security of the region. This has been highlighted recently by protests from unpaid SPLM soldiers around the Juba area. Analysts also point to the clashes between the SPLM and the SAF forces in the oil rich region of Malakal last November as evidence of the fragile status of the CPA. This has been compounded by a resurgence of militia activity by groups of opportunistic bandits and also highly organised groups with access to funding and arms from the conflict systems that border Southern Sudan.

The oil sector, currently producing some 330,000 barrels per day, is clearly dominant in the new Sudanese economy, and those connected with it are likely to shape both domestic and international Sudanese policy to a great extent. The extensive control of the dominant National Congress Party is reaffirmed by its ‘command’ of the strategic petroleum sector and the obvious unwillingness to dilute this power has defined much of the factionalism within the ruling party itself.

But the problems of wealth sharing and security are also intimately linked to the demarcation of the border between North and South, an issue that has seen the least progress in terms of CPA implementation. The delineation of the border is controversial because of its likely impact on the creating or ‘eradicating’ constituencies for both the 2011 referendum and the now more urgent anticipated 2008 elections. The 2008 elections will be a defining moment for the interim period and will impact on the composition of both the legislative and the executive of the government of Sudan. What is particularly concerning at this juncture is the lack of urgency in the drafting and proposal of either the key legislation on the Political Parties Act and the Electoral Act.

As diplomatic questions around the deployment or non-deployment of international troops in Darfur take centre stage observers are unlikely to be interested in the micro details of the CPA implementation, but this is precisely where any kind of progress will have to be measured.

Mariam Bibi Jooma, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)