17 Jul 2008: ISS Today: Violent Politics In Zimbabwe - Watering The Seeds Of Organised Crime In The Region

17 July 2008: Violent Politics In Zimbabwe - Watering The Seeds Of Organised Crime In The Region

 

Accompanied by an economy that has been on a free fall for the past five years, the violent political situation in Zimbabwe will have many long-term repercussions. Many analysts have interrogated issues that range from the prospect of an economy that will take several years to resuscitate, to a dilapidating infrastructure and governance systems that will need to be reconstructed literally from scratch. Probably the most daunting challenge, at least from a socio-psychological point of view, will be the rehabilitation of an entire generation that has suffered the impact of economic implosion and political violence. From a criminological perspective, the challenge will involve a concerted effort to change the mindsets of a people who have lost all hope and trust in government and in its law enforcement and security institutions. They can no longer trust institutions that should be their own, having been so severely brutalised by those same institutions.

 

It has consistently been shown that regions and countries that experienced devastating civil wars and conflicts also suffered sustained and unquantifiable social costs. Violent conflict has a proven propensity to damage future trust in systems that affect people’s daily lives and constitutes a major obstacle to the achievement of the United Nations’ Millennium Developments Goals (MDGs). Violent conflict also creates the impetus for future criminal behaviour. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime has already drawn a positive link between conflict situations and the rise in organised crime.

 

What are the ingredients for future organised criminal activity in Zimbabwe? On the one hand a significant number of youth have been trained to use weapons, have been armed and ordered to kill their opponents. They are repeatedly instructed that they are entitled to exterminate those who hold different views, as enemies. Perhaps inadvertently, they are being trained to expect to reap where they did not sow. On the other hand a large number of civil servants and ordinary citizens have had to learn to survive on resources that are beyond their meagre salaries - by demanding bribes and being active in the cut-throat parallel market. This situation inevitably sets the stage for future criminal behaviour.

 

Big business has also had to learn to develop strategies that are blatantly criminal in order to survive the meltdown. In fact, some have been charged for offences ranging from fraud to doing brisk business in the parallel market. Smuggling of goods in and out of Zimbabwe is common. There is little business sense in trading ethically and exclusively in the formal market because as it stands, profit is only possible when dealing with contraband. Once the situation reverts to normal, it is unlikely that individuals and businesses that have been hustling for a decade will suddenly begin to do things properly. It is conceivable that the smuggling networks that are growing now will evolve with the advent of a new dispensation. As seen in other parts of the world, criminal groups thrive on illegal businesses and illegal markets provided by chaotic political and economic situations. For example, the mafia in the United States thrived and consolidated their business in the wake of the Great Depression.

 

South Africa’s violent past set the tone for current criminal behavioural patterns. The blurring of political and criminal behaviour during apartheid entrenched a culture of invincibility on the one hand and impunity on the other. It is clear that the disruption of family units through forced removals and political violence during South Africa’s past provides one explanation for the high incidence of violent crime. It is argued that the distrust for authority and a lack of respect for the rule of law during apartheid fed into the culture of violence.

 

A similar scenario is currently replaying in Zimbabwe, with the rule of law ignored, families being violently displaced and state machinery being turned against the people. The resultant poverty and marginalisation of some people are leaving many with no viable alternatives. The political meltdown has resulted in state resources being diverted to ensuring the survival of the incumbent government. The widespread conditions of poverty and unemployment characterising Zimbabwe now, create a breeding ground for criminal behaviour. The cocktail of circumstances that are likely to fuel a potential surge in organised criminal activity include:

  • An illegal circulation of firearms and other weapons - most of them allegedly used to arm militias by state security agents. Some opposition members and ordinary citizens have reportedly started purchasing arms to protect themselves from militia attacks.
  • Innumerable illicit dealings by individuals, highly placed government officials and businesses.
  • Rife corruption, on one level by Politically Exposed Persons (PEPs) and on the other hand by underpaid public officials.
  • A myriad of economic and financial crimes, particularly those committed by corporate entities as they try to survive the economic situation that is no longer controlled by supply and demand.
  • A formal economy that is now smaller that the shadow economy.
  • A collapsing public security and law enforcement regime as well as ineffective governance oversight mechanisms
  • A bankrupt government whose resources are being siphoned by corrupt officials or diverted for political expediency
  • Massive brain drain emanating from migration of skilled citizens into the Diaspora.
  • An unemployment rate of above 80%

 

Taking the above factors into account, it is conceivable that the political strategy to create widespread disorder has effectively planted the seeds of future criminal behaviour. This will most certainly be an option for those who will not fit into the new political and economic system. As it stands, the situation will be bleaker for those who have lost everything in the prevailing chaos. 

 

Many other factors come into play. With the international isolation of Zimbabwe, the government has had no option but to look at alternative sources of funds in order to ensure its survival. Association with shadowy figures and other rogue governments become the only viable option. Mafia figures thrive in these conditions where they can sponsor a government so that its eyes are turned away from their activities. The notorious Chinese and Russian mafia are known to like using this strategy for establish new markets or consolidating existing ones. Therefore, it is hardly alarmist to suggest that the region should expect to contend with a surge in organised crime centred on Zimbabwe.

 

Arguably, the nature and scope of the impact of the prevailing situation will never be understood in the short term. It will be important in the context of regional stability and development to critically interrogate and understand these factors in order to develop appropriate and workable responses. As a starting point, the Southern African Regional Police Chiefs Cooperation Organisation (SARPCCO)’s short to medium term strategies to combat organised crime should be streamlined into the regional human security priorities of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and other stakeholders. A long-term option would be for the region to assist the Zimbabwean government, or whatever entity will come out of the negotiated process, to rehabilitate and integrate the youth and ordinary citizens and prevent them from channelling their anger and skills towards criminal undertakings.

 

Jackson Madzima, Researcher, Organised Crime and Money Laundering Programme, ISS Cape Town

Â