30 Jul 2007: ISS Today: Botswana: Khama Chameleon

30 July 2007: Botswana: Khama Chameleon

 

President Festus Mogae has announced that he will be retiring from office in March or April next year. He used the occasion of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party’s 32nd Congress to break the news, which came as little surprise. His predecessor, Sir Ketumile Masire, also stepped down after ten years, between elections, and Mogae, as vice-president assumed the reins of power. Now the heir presumptive is Mogae’s own vice-president, Ian Khama, retired Lieutenant-General, Paramount of the BamaNgwato, and eldest son of the late President Sir Seretse Khama.

 

There have been a number of observers who have drawn attention to the anomaly of Africa’s oldest democracy handling its presidential succession in a way that accords poorly with the spirit of the constitution. The new president has to do nothing to win the popular vote, even indirectly, for his party is dominant in parliament. Come the next elections in 2009, of course, there seems little that can stand in the way of another BDP victory, given the fragmented nature of an opposition riddled with internecine rivalries. The popular vote is another matter; though the BDP won 44 of the 57 elected seats it took only 52% of the ballots cast.

 

But though this consideration may qualify any generally favourable opinion about the depth and resilience of Botswana’s democracy, it is not here that the principal concern lies. The BDP has been in power since independence in 1966, apparently unassailable given the incompetence of its rivals. Of late, however, the presidency has shown a growing tendency to signs of intolerance of criticism, either from foreigners, or from the backbenches of the ruling party itself. Whether this is a merely a recent development or a hitherto largely dormant characteristic of Botswana’s single-party dominance is a matter for conjecture.

 

Public debate on the possibility of introducing a measure of proportional representation into the system, to provide for a more accurate reflection of popular opinion at election time, has been dismissed out of hand; nor has the attempt to secure public funding for political parties made any headway. It is the perceived threat of civil society interest groups to areas of the diamond industry, which is central to Botswana’s economy, that have shown most clearly President Mogae’s willingness to adopt a more menacing aspect when challenged.

 

The forced removal of the BaSarwa from the Central Kgalagadi Game Reserve in 2002 became a cause célèbre, feeding into the international “Blood Diamonds” debate. Government denied strenuously that diamond interests were involved in the removals, which were given a developmental gloss, but local civil rights organisations won the support of Survival International to pursue the matter through the courts. Eventually the judges ruled in favour of the complainants, but refused to order the government to provide them with services and hedged their judgment with such conditions as made its implementation virtually impossible. The BaSarwa have now brought their case to the attention of the United Nations.

 

No doubt the campaign for the BaSarwa will continue, though it is being hampered at every turn by the government, which has chosen to impose visa restrictions on certain foreign journalists and NGO members. There have also been two high-profile deportations of long resident foreign critics. Survival International also received special mention as a threat to Botswana’s economic security, from a cabinet minister seeking to defend the controversial Security and Intelligence Bill, which has now passed its second reading in the National Assembly. The third reading of this Bill in should provide room for heated debate, as amendments are proposed from both sides of the House. There are suspicions that this legislation will further entrench tendencies towards executive authoritarianism and non-accountability to parliament.

 

The man who will take over the presidency in 2009 has made no secret of his dislike of the compromises of political life and of his disdain for politicians in general. Ian Khama’s authoritarian habits, honed during his time as deputy and later head of the Botswana Defence Force have irked many of his cabinet and parliamentary colleagues. His overbearing attitude was reflected in a semi-public row with the party leadership and its rank-and-file. Khama attacked the party barons as “unprincipled, intolerant, selfish vultures and monkeys”. That Khama’s more populist political style commands a measure of public support merely adds to the fury of established ministers. There is little that they can do about the succession, however, and the factional maneuverings into pro- and anti-Khama camps within the party appear to have settled, especially now that his most outspoken appointments have been given cabinet posts.

 

The new president will take over as chief executive officer of what looks to be a thriving enterprise. At independence in 1966 Botswana was one of Africa’s poorest countries. Today it is classified as an upper-middle-income country with a per capita income not much lower than South Africa’s. Thanks largely to abundant revenue from diamonds, it enjoyed an unequalled growth rate during the 1970s and 80s. Responsible political leadership and conservative economic policies ensured that this wealth was not squandered but used to strengthen the country’s human and physical infrastructure. There is a realisation in government that more has to be done to diversify Botswana’s narrowly based economy, and part of this strategy will involve the privatisation of some state assets, reducing the role of government in what is essentially a mixed economy.

 

But there are worrying structural stresses. It is by no means apparent how Botswana’s economy can be diversified away from an almost absolute dependence on diamonds. The proximity of South Africa’s giant economy, against which Botswana is unable to erect protective tariff barriers, acts as an irresistible magnet for both capital and skills. Of all the countries in the world Botswana has the highest per capita incidence of HIV/AIDS infection, more than a third of the adult population being affected. It is impossible as yet to anticipate fully the impact this pandemic will have on socio-economic structures and institutions, but it denies the country any hope of realising competitive advantage in international markets.

 

To the social problems of mass poverty and unemployment has been added that of uncontrolled urbanisation. About half the population is under the age of 18. Botswana’s new president will need all the leadership skills for which his forebears were renowned if he is to tackle the long-term implications of the situation without further eroding the country’s democratic traditions.

 

Richard Cornwell, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)