27 Sep 2007: ISS Today: Campaigning in Kenya

27 September 2007: Campaigning in Kenya

 

As Kenya heads towards the December 2007 general elections the nation finds itself at a crossroads. The 2007 elections have the potential to entrench or reverse the democratic gains made since 1991.

 

Bizarre things are already happening. In the last month alone the President defected from the ruling party that voted him into office and the leader of the official opposition, Uhuru Kenyatta, defected to the Presidents party.

 

Kenyans have three clear choices in the elections. One is to retain the incumbent under the Party of National Unity (PANU) umbrella. The second is to vote in Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the third is to opt for Kalonzo Musyoka of the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (ODM-K). Five years ago these three candidates were part of a team that finally ousted the Independent Party from power after four decades of dominance. Both Musyoka and Odinga were senior members of President Kibaki’s (picture) cabinet until November 2005 when they successfully campaigned against the draft constitution in a referendum. For their troubles they were promptly shown the exit.

 

Tribalism is the true heart of Kenyan politics. The real struggle for each candidate is to put together a winning tribal alliance under the disguise of a coalition of parties, regions or individuals. What is now becoming clear is that whoever gets the right tribal combination and the support of the right chiefs will be the next president.

 

Party hopping is characteristic of the political culture in Kenya. All of the political players in Kenya have been in more than one party and some have become political prostitutes who change parties after every election. Ninety percent of the current members of parliament - including the president, the leader of the official opposition, and all three presidential candidates - are no longer members of the parties that sponsored them in 2002. It was not until September 16 that President Kibaki announced under which party banner he will be seeking re-election. In so doing he became the first President of Kenya to defect from his party.

 

The polls released in August revealed that Kibaki remained the most popular presidential candidate, however the ODM is the most popular party. This gives rise to the possibility of a president being elected without having the support of the parliamentary majority. It should nevertheless be noted that the polls were taken before the ODM and ODM-K had selected their candidates. There is no doubt the opinion polls due to be released at the end of this month will give a different scenario, since the three main parties and their candidates are now known.

 

Raila Odinga is unquestionably the most charismatic politician in Kenya. His personal energy and the ODM’s knack for sloganeering have given his campaign considerable momentum. By contrast President Kibaki is no salesman. He is a very cautious politician who does not rush to take a stand on controversial issues, but waits until the last moment to take sides. His election vehicle, the Party of National Unity (PANU), is a coalition of ethnic and regional parties whose common interest seems to be threefold: to ride on President Kibaki’s back, to be in the next government, and to prevent the election of Odinga, who they fear would make radical changes to the Kenyan socio-economic and political system if he ascended to the presidency.

 

The most recent poll in Nairobi suggests that Raila Odinga’s ODM is on a roll. According to the poll, Odinga is on top with 44%, followed by Kibaki with 40% and Kalonzo with 10%. All previous polls put Kibaki ahead. Opinion in Nairobi is generally a good indicator of where the nation is headed, and it would not be surprising if the next national polls told a similar story.

 

The question in many minds is, what would Odinga’s victory mean?  There are some clear implications. For one, Kenya would move to a decentralized system of government. Odinga’s victory would also be a first in Kenya’s political history, with Kibaki becoming the only one-term president and incumbent ever to be defeated. It would also deal a crushing blow to the pride of the self professed ‘professor of politics’, retired president Moi, who is now backing Kibaki’s re-election.
Beyond this, there are many lingering questions. If Odinga wins, what will the new power alignments be, and would a defeated Kibaki return to the opposition benches or simply retire from politics? What will Odinga do about graft among members of the government?

 

Sadly, the story of Kenyan politics cannot be told without mention of election-related violence. Since 1991, Kenya has witnessed ethnic violence after every election cycle. The trend was significantly reduced in 2002 and all indications were that 2007 would be violence free. This was until four weeks ago. In the last month a candidate has been killed, two female candidates have been seriously beaten, offices of an opposition party and one presidential candidate have been broken into, an attempted arson attack on a political party office, and the heckling of candidates has become a regular occurrence. Only days ago three key members of the opposition ODM escaped death by a whisker when they were attacked by armed youths, allegedly at the instigation of a senior cabinet minister who was on the scene. Kenyans are holding their breath in the hope that reason will prevail and no further incidents of this kind will take place. This, only time will tell.

 

Peter Edopu, Programme Head: African Human Security Initiative, and Director: ISS Nairobi