24 May 2007: ISS Today: Angolans Continue to Hold Their Breath Over Elections

24 May 2007: Angolans Continue to Hold Their Breath Over Elections…

Angolans’ fears that the parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for 2008 and 2009 respectively may be further delayed are not without foundation.  Since the last election of 1992, which resulted in the resumption of the civil for almost a decade, the Angolans have been denied the chance to exercise their democratic rights at the polls.  President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ MPLA won the 1992 elections by a very narrow and contested margin, and since then have been tenaciously holding on to power at all costs, the most obvious tactic being the repeated delaying of elections. 

Amid assurances from the National Electoral Commission (CNE) that the voter registration process was on track and that the 15 June  2007 deadline would be met,(1) stakeholders within and outside Angola have raised concerns about this timetable not being feasible.  In February, March and May foreign media strongly hinted at the possibility of the 15 June deadline being extended(2) as the registration process was being delayed by the real challenges access to the eastern Moxico Province and Lunda Sul Province as a consequence of heavy rains, poor roads and landmines.  In addition there were shortages of officials to carry out the registrations. 

To counter the capacity challenge the CNE deployed mobile brigades to bring voter registration to the people.  The mobile brigades travel to the remote areas in the provinces accessing citizens in their communes and compounds.  The CNE also staged campaigns to encourage citizens to register.  Notable among these were women’s month to register, which was March and the youth month in April.(3) In these campaigns the CNE urged the women and the youth to embrace the registration process as their birthright and right to self-determination.

Worthy of comment is the CNE’s efforts to make use of the chiefs in the provinces in the registration process.  The chiefs stand as witness to those citizens who wish to register but do not possess the necessary identity documentation.  On the other hand a number of citizens have been turned away from the registration process, being singled out by the same chiefs for not possessing the required documentation.(4) In light of the fact that most of the returning refugees do not have legal documentation to prove that they are indeed Angolans, the registration process is robbing a substantial number of Angolans the right to express themselves democratically.  Speculation that the majority of the refugees being turned away are UNITA supporters suggests a blow to that party’s chances at the polls long before the voting begins.

Although it may appear that the extension of the registration process is a ploy by the MPLA to keep delaying the elections, a few factors on the political scene require a greater measure of objectivity.

As mentioned, the registration process is faced with real challenges on the ground. Logistical constraints also arise from unreliable population data, taking into account that the last real consensus was in 1975, and the issue of returning refugees and internally displaced peoples who do not have legal documentation to support their claims of Angolan citizenship.

The MPLA is most likely to win the polls as it the political opposition from UNITA remains weak.  UNITA has been facing internal strife as its leader Isaias Samakuva is facing strong competition from Abel Chivukuvuku, who wants to take over as UNITA party leader.  In addition 16 UNITA deputies in parliament have refused orders from the party leadership to step down and intend to form an independent group in parliament.  This has the effect of further weakening UNITA and posing a fragmented opposition to MPLA.

Further delays could suit UNITA and other opposition parties, as it gives them time to put their internal affairs in order.  Delaying the elections also has the potential to discredit the MPLA as their deepening record of corruption and elitist activities at the expense of the general population may weaken their chances at the polls.  However this is a long shot, as the presidency has woven a vast patronage network and is virtually autonomous and accountable to neither the parliament nor the MPLA. 

It comes as no surprise that the CNE has made strong recommendations for extension of the electoral registration period by 90 days.(5)  This recommendation was long in coming and should not necessarily lead to thoughts of further delays of the 2008 and 2009 elections, as there is still time to prepare for these, even though President dos Santos appears to be in no hurry to confirm his popular mandate.

Rugare Ncube, Research Intern, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)

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