24 Jul 2008: ISS Today: The First Step Towards a Deal in Zimbabwe

24 July 2008: The First Step Towards a Deal in Zimbabwe

 

The protagonists in the Zimbabwe political crisis finally met this week and signed a framework that outlines the key issues that will drive the negotiation process towards a possible political settlement. The signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by the leaders of the ruling ZANU-PF and the two factions of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) marked an important step towards negotiations and progress in the long facilitation process led by President Thabo Mbeki, mediator of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

 

Obviously, the signing of the MoU only signals the first step and a commitment by all the parties to resolve the crisis through dialogue. It also reflects an agreement on key agenda issues that will form the basis for the negotiations. Full-blown negotiations on substantive matters will now follow. Meanwhile, how should we read and understand the issues contained in the MoU? Most importantly, what does the signing of the MoU portend for the possible resolution of the political crisis?

 

Firstly, some of the key concerns and areas of contention between ZANU-PF and the MDC-faction led by Morgan Tsvangirai that had threatened to undermine the prospects for a peaceful settlement to the Zimbabwe crisis have been addressed. ForZANU-PF, the key issues relating to sanctions, the land question and external interference have been included as agenda points. More importantly, the issue of the current status of the head of state and the outcome of the recent run-off elections are currently not included in the agenda points. For the MDC, the issue of security of its members, the prevention of violence, calls for the stop of hate speech, as well as the role of SADC and the African Union (AU) as underwriters and guarantors of the global political agreement seem to have allayed their major concerns.

 

The second issue relates to the recognition and acknowledgement of the need by all protagonists to engage in dialogue. Reference to dialogue as the agency for brokering a political settlement to the crisis clearly indicates a realisation that both parties need to work together. This signifies that neither ZANU-PF nor the MDC can resolve the crisis on its own.

 

Thirdly, the MoU does not specify the type or form the unity government will take. This will be determined by the substantive negotiations and ultimately by a global political agreement. The single most important development arising from the signing of the MoU, is the recognition of a necessity to form a “new government” or “an inclusive government”. The reference to ‘working together in an inclusive government’ further strengthens the imperative to have some form of unity government that will comprise both ZANU-PF and the two MDC factions.

 

In view of the above, what does the MoU deal portend for a possible peaceful and negotiated political settlement in Zimbabwe? The signing of the MoU reflects the first breakthrough towards achieving a negotiated political settlement since the crisis first broke out in 2000. The deal brokered through the facilitation of President Mbeki provides both the facilitator and the regional body SADC with breathing space after mounting international criticism and pressure. The MoU could not come at a better time for SADC, as South Africa is expected to take over chairmanship of the organization from Zambia in August this year. This is important given the emerging divisions within the regional body.

 

Challenges towards reaching a global political agreement remain. One of the possible stumbling blocks is the form or type of government that will be established through the negotiations. Will both parties insist on their conception of unity government, either a transitional form or government of national unity? There have been calls for a government of national unity such as the call made by the AU at its 11th Ordinary Session in Sharm El Sheik, Egypt recently. Others, including the MDC, supported by Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, have called for a transitional government with a limited time frame and with responsibilities such as drafting a new constitution, security reforms, and holding elections.

 

Another potential stumbling block is who will lead the new entity? Will the MDC-Tsvangirai insist on their leader Morgan Tsvangirai heading up the unity government or will ZANU-PF insist that it should be led by President Robert Mugabe? These two issues are likely to be the most contentious during the dialogue and have the potential of stalling the progress if the two leading protagonists cannot find common ground or compromise.

 

Other contentious issues relate to the role of external parties  - especially those that continue to threaten pressure such as imposition of sanctions or make statements that may be interpreted as undermining a compromise, e.g. threatening not to recognize any deal that includes President Mugabe. Another issue is the ability of protagonists to control their supporters, especially the militants and alleged perpetrators of political violence. Incidents of violence have the potential of being used by political players in the crisis as a political tool or strategy if things do not go their way.

 

A related point is whether the hardliners and potential spoilers in both parties are brought on board and whether they will support an outcome that does not address all their fears or demands. In this regard, what is the position of the security apparatus relating to any deal struck by the political leaders and what assurances are they likely to be offered? The latter point further speaks to a critical issue of amnesty, impunity and justice relating to abuses that have been perpetrated by the actors in the crisis, especially the security organs. Ultimately, the signing of the MoU and the dialogue that is under way in South Africa are positive developments but many issues and stumbling blocks remain.

 

Saki Mpanyane, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)

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