09 Nov 2006: ISS Today: Congo Poll Contenders Urge Calm, But One Cries Foul

09 November 2006: Congo Poll Contenders Urge Calm, But One Cries Foul
Reuters AlertNet

 

"President Joseph Kabila and Vice President Bemba call on the population to remain calm, respect the institutions and laws of the nation and avoid acts of provocation and violence," the two said in a joint statement after meeting for half an hour behind closed doors at Kabila`s riverside presidential palace.

 

UN and EU peacekeepers, on alert after fighting between the rivals` private armies following the first vote, have bolstered their presence in Kinshasa, digging in behind sandbags and stepping up foot patrols and helicopter surveillance.

 

Partial results trickling out so far put Kabila ahead, but in the first serious allegation of fraud in the run-off vote, Bemba`s coalition said results posted on the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) Web site differed from its own tally.

 

"If there were just two or three cases, we could say that there is an error. But this is systematic in all the voting stations ... We believe there is a policy of cheating that we can`t accept," Eve Bazaiba, spokeswoman for Bemba`s Union for the Nation coalition, told a news conference.

 

CEI spokesman Dieudonne Mirimo said the commission had received a letter of complaint and would investigate. A Western diplomat described Bemba`s complaint as a "warning shot" in the tense stand-off with Kabila.

 

Commentary

 

The situation in Kinshasa is very tense and although Kabila and Bemba have promised to accept the outcome of the election this is no guarantee that there will not be outbreaks of violence. Following the outbreaks on 20 August, MONUC and the international community have but in place various confidence building agreements.

  • Cantonment of troops in Kinshasa (23 Aug)
  • Verification teams (23 Aug)
  • Joint Commision (30 Aug)
    • Independent Inquiry sub-commission
    • Political Sub-commission
  • Actes d’Engagement on:
    • Media (26 & 30 Aug)
    • Weapons-free Kinshasa (23 Sept)
    • Campaign rules (17 Oct)
  • Protocol on post electoral  assurances and guarantees (29 Oct)

 

There are certain factors that can influence the situation in the run up to and after the announcement of the results. These factors are discussed in detail in the situation report, “DRC on the eve of the second round of elections”.

  • Slow military reform;
  • Political tension between Kabila and Bemba;
  • The media and its role in provoking tension; and
  • The ability of various forces (MONUC, EUFOR DR Congo and PNC) to ensure a secure environment for the election.

 

Both parties have been adhering to the agreements. The threat of violence is, however, still there. The accusation on 8th November by Bemba’s party of systematic cheating in all the voting stations is of concern and could spark violence. MONUC and the European Union Mission, EUFOR R.D. Congo has but in place additional measures to secure Kinshasa. MONUC has deployed 1700 troops to Kinshasa to static posts in around the centre of Kinshasa and to patrol the streets. EUFOR.R.D. Congo has 1500 troops in Kinshasa and has also stepped up foot and vehicle patrols. The key question is, will they act assertively against any party that take to the streets and instigates violence.

 

Three possible scenarios could play out:

 

Scenario One: Peaceful elections, no incidents before, during and afterwards

 

This scenario is only possible if there is sustained political will of the part of both Kabila and Bemba to contest the elections in a peaceful way. Both candidates must refrain from using the media to broadcast hate speech and from mobilising the population to use violence to obtain political support; both candidates will also have to control their protection elements and, if possible, demobilise them; both candidates will have to display the political will to accept the outcome of the elections and the winner must also be open to accommodate the loser in the new cabinet. The security forces must also be ready and willing to implement their mandate to secure the elections.

 

Scenario Two: A peaceful election but violence when the results are made known

 

This is a likely scenario. When the election results are made known, violence may occur in the traditional west, areas controlled by Bemba. Once again, it is the responsibility of the security forces to mitigate and control outbreaks of violence.

 

Scenario Three: A possible coup before the elections results are made known

 

This scenario is highly unlikely. The position of the international community and the United Nations is clear: they will not allow a coup, and there is a sufficiently credible international force to prevent it from happening.

 

Henri Boshoff, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)