08 Jun 2007: ISS Today: What Comes First: Economic or Political Union? Tracing the Evolution of Common Markets, Unions and Federations in East Africa

8 June 2007: What Comes First: Economic or Political Union? Tracing the Evolution of Common Markets, Unions and Federations in East Africa

 

Efforts at regional cooperation have been going on in East Africa since the turn of the last century, and 30 years after the collapse of the last regional integration attempt (1977), Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda have become keen once again to revive and strengthen regional cooperation.

 

To achieve accelerated economic growth and development in East Africa, the Treaty that set up the current form of the East African Community (EAC) was signed on 30 November 1999 and ratified 3 years later in 2002. More than four years down the line, there is a renewed vigour to operationalise and implement the provisions of this treaty.

 

The integration is envisaged to take place first with the introduction of a Customs Union by 8 December 2008. However, only 13 of the 19 members committed themselves to this by signing the Comesa protocol. The rest of the timeline is as follows: a Monetary Union in 2010 and, finally, an East African Political Federation by 2013. Plans are to ‘fast track the political federation process’ so that total integration takes place sooner rather than later.

 

The broader aims of the community are to develop policies and programmes aimed at widening and deepening cooperation among the partner states in political, economic, social and cultural fields, research and technology, defense, security and legal and judicial affairs for their mutual benefit (Article 5 (1)).

 

Major challenges include the harmonisation of trade arrangements with Comesa and SADC, developments of infrastructure, civil aviation, energy, tourism, wildlife, social sectors and the operationalisation of the Lake Victoria Basin Commission.

 

Issues

 

Each country appears to be taking its own initiatives to secure its position and safeguard its interests in the community. Kenya has set up a Ministry of the East African Community that is mandated with setting in place a framework for moving towards a political federation. The ministry has several departments: Customs and Trade, Projects and Programmes, Political and Security Affairs. The tasks imply that there has to be a form of continuity in some new capacity for this ministry when the federation has been achieved. Otherwise all institutional memory with regard to the formulation and review of protocols will be lost. The main danger is that this separate ministry could formulate policies that are antagonistic to the country’s foreign policy position. This makes constant liaison with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs a critical matter.

 

Tanzania appears to have maintained the preparatory plans under a separate desk in the ministry of Foreign Affairs -- signaling the significance of containing the bureaucratic hurdles that accompany fragmented decision-making. Uganda has confined the function to the Ministry of Regional Cooperation.

 

Although mimicking the West is not always the best approach, the EAC appears to be deviating from the trajectory of other stable federations such as the EU and the Organisation of American States. Both emerged from successful economic cooperation that used a “Lego-building block” approach. The history of such monetary and political union formations provides many lessons for the current efforts in East Africa’s current reintegration efforts. Political unions that are not bound by firm economic cooperation are likely to be fragile, and this the region must guard against. A cursory glance at other similar political unions that are struggling to form coherent values (SADC) send enough early warnings as to the path to be followed in regional cooperative efforts.

 

Whereas integration will be beneficial for trans-boundary resource utilisation, trade and investment, questions arise as to whether the same benefits will extend to the security sector. Can sustainable development be possible in the absence of stringent security measures to police the borders in the region? Porous borders have exacerbated the insecurity of citizens and those conducting business in these areas. Cross border conflicts have affected all the countries in the envisaged union and the historic causes of these conflicts merit attention if integration is to incorporate the rather shaky peace deals. Can tourism flourish under such conditions?

 

The current ‘policy’ efforts to protect the EAC market from counterfeit and pirated goods are a notable achievement but enforcement will be a major challenge. All sectors from the textile to pharmaceuticals are affected by counterfeit goods.

 

Problems

 

There is a general overlapping of membership by some countries that belong to all three key regional organisations, EAC, Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Comesa. Seven southern African countries (Angola, DRC, Malawi, Mauritius, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe) belong to both Comesa and SADC. Kenya and Uganda are in both the EA Customs Union and Comesa. The former organization is yet to become operational since it came into effect one and a half years ago. Tanzania belongs to EAC and SADC but not to the emerging giant, Comesa. Comesa has an estimated population of 400 million and its total GDP is about US$200 bn. South Africa, Swaziland, Namibia, Botswana and Lesotho belong to the South African Customs Union. Although sovereignty is always respected in all regional groupings, protectionism on customs matters will derail the integration process, and with every country believing it has to protect its ‘sensitive’ products, the real nightmare of implementation of these agreements is yet to be realised.

 

Geographical expansion to include Rwanda and Burundi is taking place at the same pace as institution building in the separate countries and in the host country -- Tanzania (Arusha). This expansion, though positive, could constrain capacity to monitor the integration process. At the same time, regional growth can be accomplished only if the rest of the countries in the region, Somalia and Ethiopia included, are part of the efforts. Accession to the federation will thus have to rely ultimately on some criteria such as respecting and upholding the rule of law and the principles of democracy which, hopefully, form the basis for the Union. This brings in the issue of the diplomacy of human rights conducted by sub-regional regimes (organisations). Therefore, before Rwanda and Burundi join the EAC, the connection between geo-political security and economics has to be realised. It is quite apparent that all things being equal, security and political stability have to be realised in all member or prospective member states. The Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis has noted that without this kind of appreciation of political and social challenges of prospective EAC members, the plans towards political federation may prove to be too ambitious. Therefore, a basis for joining the Union would be the use of the diplomacy of human rights and democratisation which should be a pre-requisite. This is also an operationalisation of one of its treaty objectives which is, “The promotion of Peace and stability within the region, and good neighborliness among the partner states”. Obviously, functioning market economies, a capacity to cope with competitiveness and a willingness to abide by the Union’s political, economic and monetary union’s expectations are a must. Even though, the language barriers (French/English/Swahili) can be a source of delays and frustration.

 

Problems in constituting the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA) have demonstrated the challenges in union formation.  The East African Court of Justice rejected the Kenyan nominees for the regional parliamentary body because they had not been chosen democratically through elections, as required by Article 50 of the EAC treaty. Kenya became embroiled in an internal squabble over the selection of the candidates, signaling that respect for the rule of law could be a problem for the union. Sovereignty principles forced Tanzania and Uganda to adhere to the court’s judgment and yet the dispute stalled all progress in the EALA. 

 

Establishing a multilateral forum for steering and overseeing development in the region requires a commitment to sharing and defending common interests; these East Africa is yet to define.

 

Dr Annie Barbara Chikwanha, African Human Security Programme, ISS Nairobi