05 Dec 2006: ISS Today: Zimbabwe: Renewed Tension in ZANU-PF Over the Race for Presidential Succession

5 December 2006: Renewed Tension in ZANU-PF Over the Race for Presidential Succession

Zanu PF’s turf war involving two factions led by retired general Solomon Mujuru and party strongman Emmerson Mnangagwa has now spilled over into Parliament. A key ally of the Mujuru faction, Industry and International Trade Minister Obert Mpofu, now faces the danger of being forced to reveal the culprits behind the looting of the giant steel making company Ziscosteel. Speaker of Parliament John Nkomo, who recently revealed his ambition of standing for the Presidency once Mugabe retires, said Mpofu had a case to answer for allegedly lying under oath in Parliament. A privileges committee is to be appointed soon to investigate Mpofu who submitted conflicting information while giving oral evidence in parliament about the deal that saw an Indian firm, Global Steel Holdings, assuming control of Ziscosteel without any contractual agreement or injection of capital. It was during this hearing on September 20th that Mpofu presented information before the portfolio committee in which he referred to a file which he said contained ‘shocking’ information which implicated unnamed MP’s in corrupt dealings at Zisco. Analysts say Mpofu, allegedly from the Mujuru faction, did not know that most of the names contained in the report were from the same faction. Vice-President Joyce Mujuru is reported to have intervened and stopped him from giving evidence before the committee. But the damage had already been done. (SW Radio Africa, “Zanu PF using Parliament to fight its faction wars” 1 Dec-2006)

The attention of most observers of Zimbabwean politics is currently focused on possible developments relating to the bitterly contested presidential succession, which is expected to feature prominently either informally or formally at the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (Zanu-PF) annual conference on 14-17 December 2006. At this stage, however, all the fuss and speculation over the presidential succession could prove yet again to be a storm in a teacup, since its is still unclear if current President Robert Mugabe intends to step down in 2008 or 2010. As has happened in the past, the issue of presidential succession may yet again be bypassed, as it has not been noted as one of the items on the conference agenda, which will be announced by John Nkomo, Chairman of the ruling party. However, if a decision about succession is not made at this year’s congresses, the postponement of this discussion to the 2007 conference would mean that it would be too late to agree on a candidate, since the next presidential elections are due in 2008. Given the backing of Zanu-PF`s comfortable parliamentary majority, Mugabe could easily revise the electoral timetable, since this requires no constitutional amendment. Nor does the constitution limit the number of presidential terms, so Mugabe could seek re-election in 2008. Faced with the choice of Mugabe standing again in 2008 or postponing the presidential contest until 2010, the party barons may prefer the latter option.

The various factions in the party keen to see their candidate step into the top spot have used all manner of instruments to bolster their chances, while simultaneously trying to undermine the credibility of their intra-party rivals in the succession stakes. Ruling party barons, featuring the likes of Vice-President Joyce Mujuru, Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, Reserve Bank Governor Gideon Gono, and Parliamentary Speaker John Nkomo, have been mooted as possible candidates for the succession. Joyce Mujuru is considered to be the heir apparent, but the political terrain is fast changing, as allegations of corruption in her political camp emerge. Mujuru is believed to have already alienated potential allies in the party, among them senior politicians who backed her against Mnangagwa in 2004 in the two Matabeleland provinces. As a result she has since lost the trust and confidence of Matabeleland kingpins within ZANU-PF, such as Vice-President Joseph Msika and John Nkomo, who were upset when she indicated that she would back Obert Mpofu for the vice-presidency, should she get into office. An indication of Nkomo’s displeasure was his failure to come to Mpofu’s defence when the parliamentary committee recommended that Parliament charge Mpofu with perjury over his testimony on the Zisco affair.

As indicated above, one of the favoured instruments used to discredit intra-party rivals in the succession race is the so-called fight against corruption. One of the country’s worst corruption scandals, which is being referred to as “Ziscogate”, is seen as the latest weapon in the succession contest and is currently sending shock waves through the ruling party. Its tremors are being felt widely, and Mugabe is under increasing pressure from certain members of his Cabinet to take action against Cabinet members and ruling Zanu-PF party officials who are implicated. According to South Africa’s Mail and Guardian, “In a three-hour presentation, Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa advised Mugabe during a Cabinet meeting that there was ‘prima facie’ evidence of perjury against Mpofu, that Cabinet members were involved [in the Zisco scandal], and that Parliamentary Speaker John Nkomo should be given a chance to appoint the parliamentary privileges and immunity committee to get to the bottom of Ziscogate”.

The potentially negative consequences for the government and the ruling party have not gone unnoticed by Zimbabwe’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIO), which is reported to have advised Mugabe last month that releasing the Zisco report would damage his government and create a “confidence crisis”. The new intriguing twist to the saga is how the politics of succession within the ruling Zanu-PF party - which pits Vice-President Joyce Mujuru and Emmerson Mnangagwa against one another - is affecting whether or not the truth about what happened at Zisco will come out. It emerged this week that a confidential and controversial National Economic Conduct Inspectorate (NECI) report into corruption at Zisco implicates members of a faction aligned to retired General Solomon Mujuru, the kingmaker within the ruling party, and his wife, Joyce, in the Zisco scandal. The NECI is an investigative team within the Ministry of Finance. According to recent press reports, several high-ranking government officials in Mujuru’s camp have been implicated in this report.

Irrespective of which faction eventually emerges victorious from this bruising succession battle it is unlikely to result in a resolution of the political and socio-economic problems that have afflicted Zimbabwe. This is partly because neither Mujuru nor Mnangagwa, the favourites, possess the necessary skills or backing to win over party radicals, who want to take land redistribution further and to nationalise the biggest companies. This would be no way to cool the international confrontation, cut a deal with the International Monetary Fund and World Bank and reverse the economic slide. Zanu-PF`s best hope would be a reconciliation candidate such as Simba Makoni, who kept away from the past decade`s political violence and corruption and is respected across the political spectrum.

Chris Maroleng, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)