27 Nov 2008: ISS Today: The Army of Guinea Bissau a Threat to Stability

27 November 2008: The Army of Guinea Bissau a Threat to Stability

 

On the night of 22 November 2008 a group of soldiers launched an attack on the residence of Guinea Bissau’s President João Bernardo “Nino” Vieira. Though the attackers’ motives are not yet known, it is clear that their intention was to assassinate the President and halt the ongoing electoral process. The incident came only a week after the country held what was seen as exemplary legislative elections in a rather volatile socio-political context. Contestation over the results was still going on.

 

In considering the implications of this new attempt by the military to take control of the country and compromise the political process, one should be aware of the fact that, for many decades, socio-economic and political stability in Guinea Bissau has been severely undermined by two major factors: an overwhelming dominance of the armed forces due to its liberation credentials and the scourge of drug trafficking.

 

Since its independence in 1974, one of the main features of Guinea Bissau is a state of chronic political instability that has come mainly from the prominent role of the army in national politics and poor governance.

 

Since the end of the civil war (1998-1999), the authorities in Guinea Bissau have been striving to restore the credibility of state institutions and attempting to consolidate peace and promote development. But this has been largely unsuccessful.

 

In March 2007 the country`s three leading political parties, the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the Party for Social Reform (PRS), and the United Social Democratic Party (PUSD), signed a stability pact aimed at promoting cohesion and national consensus on some of the more pressing challenges facing the country. However, the expectations were short-lived and the pact collapsed immediately after one of the major parties, the PAIGC withdrew in July 2008. This led to the collapse of the coalition government and the dissolution of the parliament, throwing Guinea Bissau back into a situation of political crisis.

 

An attempted coup by Rear-Admiral Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto, a month later, highlighted the precarious and tense environment in which the November elections took place. 

 

Not only were these elections expected to fill the institutional vacuum left by the dissolution of the parliament, they were also set to provide for a new legitimate government led by a new prime minister to complete the reconstruction process. Yet, not all political actors were prepared to accept the verdict of the ballot box. Former president Koumba Yala’s PRS complained about electoral fraud and political corruption involving President Vieira in the run-up to the elections.

 

Though many observers described the process as generally credible and transparent, Yala has called upon his followers to reject the electoral results. There is not enough evidence to suggest this new attempted coup is a response to Yala’s call to his supporters to reject the results that gave the PAIGC an overwhelming majority (67 out of 100 seats in the parliament), the PRS 28 seats and the Republican Party for Independence and Development (PRID) 3 seats only. However, the involvement of his nephew, sergeant Alexander Tchama Yala who allegedly masterminded the attacks, might lend credence to the argument that the army remains a key role-player in the stability or the instability of Guinea Bissau. It also highlights the fragility of the society as a whole.

 

According to a recent UN census of the national army in Guinea Bissau, out of 4500 registered soldiers, more than 3000 were officers, 1800 of them holding the rank of major and above. In addition, less than 10 percent are between the ages of 18 and 20, while the majority are over 60. The lack of socio-economic incentives and resources has contributed to the stalling of the security sector reform launched after the civil war. It is estimated that the reform will require an injection of $184 million and the government envisaged to create a new army of 2500 members. For the peace process to be consolidated in Guinea Bissau, there is an urgent need to reform the ill-disciplined and ageing army, provided that the government manages to offer credible alternatives including pension or retirement funds. In the meantime, soldiers fear that retirement might mean misery and could not imagine life outside the barracks. Civil servants have not being paid in three months. Amid condemnations of the foiled coup is the concern that development partners would cut the much-needed financial support that the government desperately needs. As a result, political authorities might resort to drug resources thus exacerbating the scourge of drug trafficking.

 

 The use of Guinea Bissau as a transit country by Latin-American drug dealers has reached an alarming proportion. National and transnational law enforcement agencies have intercepted more than three tons of cocaine since 2006, while a further over 40 tons have transited through West Africa. Drug trafficking poses serious threats to the post-conflict reconstruction of the country. It could compromise the fragile gains of the peacebuilding process and encourage political corruption. The resources from drug trafficking no longer serve only to purchase weapons. They might provide political actors and the military hierarchy with enough resources to influence the electoral/political process. If this persists, Guinea Bissau’s quest for stability might well be elusive. Moreover, the 2010 presidential elections might be contentious, degenerating into violence, hence furthering the deterioration of the living conditions of the citizens. Perhaps, it is time to rethink the peacebuilding process in Guinea Bissau and in Africa as a whole. For as long as the army remains bloated, unprofessional and ethnically oriented, this attempted coup may not be the last one. The African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have meanwhile reaffirmed their opposition to unconstitutional changes of governments in Africa.

 

Dr David Zounmenou, Senior Researcher, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)

Â